hedge dude

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    • Mon Aug 11th 10:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Discussion on TTEK
      What's going on with TTEK today ?... I think it s time to short the stock given high valuation and its slowdown sensitivity.
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    • Fri Jul 25th 06:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      News Flash: Major Market Turns Aren't Announced In Advance
      Just Financials short covering for hedge funds and underweight exposure reduction for mutual funds... So many people were in this trade for the last 6 months that this kind of move was predictable after bank earnings surprises. But this kind of call has been made for 6 months as well by a lot of strategists... The story will continue... NIM will be under pressure, fees will be under pressure, credit is still under pressure... So do you want to buy it with a valuation call ?valuation was already depressed 6 months ago... It's a financial crisis we are facing man ! Combined with inflation issues the global economy is at risk, it means staglation. The worst scenario you could have for monetary policy.
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    • Wed Jul 23rd 05:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wachovia's Rally & Oil's Decline: Rotation from Energy to Financials?
      Just Financials short covering helped by easing oil prices... But the story is not over... Do you want to buy Financials and make bottom fishing on that ? I think lots of investors are not willing to sell the sectors where visibility is good like Energy, and buy where the visibility is poor like Financials and Cons Discretionary . It s a dangerous game... It has already happened last month... This game between Financials and Energy is always the same but where is the logic? Structural issues are increasing more and more in terms of Energy supply combined with demographic issues in terms of demand... Does this logic has changed? Are we in a global recession to conclude that crude demand will decrease? No... Are we in a better economic context for the Financials ? No... Inflation is easing? No... Staglation is easing? No... Don t fall in this trap, don t catch this rally because it s not a relief rally.
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    • Wed Jul 9th 04:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In
      When you hear that kind of argumentation, you understand why the market is so inefficient.... Don t dream Gabe... Staglation fear is spreading... look at the different CPIs, PPIs in all the different economies. High oil prices doesn t come from speculation, you ve got structural issues now, supply issues more than demand issues. Accordingly, it will weigh on costs.... And the main problem is cost inflation that will accelerate inevitably. It means that central banks will raise rates now. China is not anymore a safe haven as well. Finally, if you look at the earnings growth estimates for this year (excluding financials), you still have 14% growth ! How could you believe it is sustainable?... So the street has to revise down.
      If you look at technicals, that s not good as well. All the rebounds are weak and driven by short covering, but mutual funds are not ready to buy this market in this context because there is no catalysts...
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