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10 Comments

    • Thu Nov 20th 09:46 AM | Rating: +2 -1
      Commented on:
      JPMorgan: Expect Fed to Cut to 0% in January
      Dear God, I can't even bear to think of the hyperinflation that's going to show up once we get out of this mess. A ZIRP, in addition to the hundreds of billions that have already been squandered and the billions more that will be wasted?

      Say hello to the Weimar Dollar. And to think, we used laugh at Zimbabwean currency problems. Maybe Mugabe will be the one with the last laugh...
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    • Thu Jul 17th 12:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Was That a Bottom? Should We Even Care?
      This is how you build lasting wealth - not by day trading or getting the "hot stock tip" (and buying in at the top), but through simple, boring techniques that most people have heard of but few actually practice.

      There's a reason Buffet bet big on index funds against the flashy hedge fund managers - index funds work, and they are cost effective. The number one rule of investing is to keep costs low - that will ultimately determine more over the long run than anything else.
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    • Wed Jul 16th 23:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Middle East Proving To Be Hotspot for ETFs
      TRAMX would be a good fund if it weren't for the horrendous expense ratio. If they lower it down from the ridiculous 1.95%, then I'll consider buying.
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 11th 10:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Getting Out of Today's Bear Market
      Right now, we're being punished for the collective stupidity of Alan Greenspan, the big banks, and the average American consumer. Before Bernanke took over the Fed tried to avoid recession by pumping the economy full of cheap money.

      American consumers were too dumb to realize the simple fact: you can't spend more than you make over a long period of time and come out ahead. And as many homeowners found out, those ARMs they took out in 2002 and 2003 are beating the crap out of them now.

      Our economy is in bad shape - consumers are 70% of it, and they're getting hammered. When you have a currency that's barely worth the paper it's printed on and a country that doesn't manufacture anything anymore, it's little wonder why a financial services collapse will obliterate the market.

      I can see oil at $165 by year end and the S&P at 850 by February. There are still millions of foreclosures to come.
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    • Fri Jul 11th 09:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Look at New Asset Allocation and Hedged Equity ETFs
      I own the JFT ETN - it's down a little right now, but the performance has been great and I get access to a basic hedge fund strategy without having to do anything myself.

      There's even an ETF for private equity now - I think it's PSP. Worth a look if you're in to hedge-fund-like strategies.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 10th 16:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pessimism and Doom Our National Pastime: Flashback to the '70s
      What does it matter if unemployment is lower now than it was in the 1980s? We can't buy anything anyways, and we can barely pay the bills because our dollar is absolutely worthless and the Fed won't do anything about it.

      But let's just assume your contentions are correct. Look closely at your own chat - look where unemployment was in 1973. It was fairly close to what it is today. 1973, as we are all aware, was the beginning of nearly a decade of stagflation and economic pain. When the Fed raises rates, as it will eventually be forced to do, we'll probably see unemployment skyrocket again. Think Volcker in the early 80s. There's going to be pain, and I fail to see why the individual investor should be bullish on the US economy as a whole. About the only things worth being long in are health care and energy.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 10th 16:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chart of the Day: Anatomy of a Bear Market
      The parallels to the early 1970s are eerie - high energy costs, a wasteful US consumer (then: big family sedan guzzlers; now: big SUVs), surging demand from emerging economies, volatility in the Middle East, low levels of consumer and investor confidence.

      At least in the 1970s you could get around 13% in a Fidelity money market. Back then, people actually tried this amazing & revolutionary concept: you know - saving money! Lately, we've just preferred to spend 1.5 times what we make and incur 30.99% APR, and when that fails take out huge HELOCs which then become part of CDOs rated AAA.

      We've tried to stave off a natural correction in our economy for so long with cheap money that this correction is going to be much more painful than it ever would have if we'd tightened up liquidity in the first place! But don't tell Alan Greenspan.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 10th 14:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      UBS: Can It Get Any Worse?
      I disagree with your eighth point - if you have a significant need for privacy and asset protection, Switzerland is the place to be. The Swiss banks have a long history of standing up to the IRS, and Swiss law considers tax evasion a misdemeanor. The US courts can rule all they want - they have no jurisdiction on Swiss soil.

      I have to laugh at the people who were stupid enough to put their assets in UBS or even Credit Suisse, though. What kind of moron fails to recognize that the Swiss banks with international exposure are also the easiest targets for the IRS? If these wealthy clients had anything other than rocks for brains, they would have gone to a local Swiss bank, plunked down $100k and gotten a numbered account to ensure a modicum of security.

      The IRS is going to have a field day now with the UBS clients, and I'm happy for them. There's nothing better than increasing government revenue off the back of worthless tax cheats.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 9th 18:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Far Could Oil Prices Fall?
      Sure, it's feasible that oil could drop $10. Do I think it's likely? No, not at all. Hurricane season has just begun, the Middle East remains volatile, Nigerian production has been hampered by the continuing threat of MEND, Venezuela would rather sell to China and India, and the Saudis won't raise production (not because they don't want to, but because they can't - their fields are not nearly as robust as they lead us to believe).

      While speculators share part of the blame for the run-up in prices, it's an exceptionally small part. The supply of light sweet crude just simply isn't what it used to be - we're resorting to heavier, dirtier oil that is costlier to refine.

      What I think has done the most damage is our idiotic Federal Reserve - they've weakened the dollar to the breaking point. Greenspan flooded the economy with cheap money for years to try and stave off a recession. This was monumentally stupid - corrections are a necessary part of the economic cycle, and now we're in a situation where we are worse off than if the Fed had just let a drop happen. I wish they'd just raise interest rates already and quit being cowards. The economy is already messed up, and a rate hike would be a short-term pain that would ultimately end up making us better off. But Bernanke will never do it. The 2% will stay the same at the next meeting.

      At this point, I'm more worried about a situation where we have 10 years of pain like Japan did than a market crash. I would much rather see a quick crash and ensuing recovery than the prolonged beating we're taking every day right now.

      I think oil will continue to go up past $150 by the end of August.
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    • Wed Jul 9th 18:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why $140/Barrel Crude is Unsustainable
      What many oil bears continually fail to realize is that while we may not run out of oil for decades, the new oil that we are finding today is of much lower quality than what we are accustomed to, not to mention that it's tougher to get at. Discoveries in the same vein as the Petrobras Tupi field used to be common. Now, they're exceedingly rare.

      Saudi Arabia will peak soon if they haven't already, and the era of abundant light sweet crude will be over for good. Russia has already overtaken the Saudis as the world's number one producer. Once climate change starts to melt that Siberian permafrost and the Arctic Ocean is free of ice for half the year, Russia will become a superpower again. Gazprom already supplies 25% of Europe's gas, its subsidiary Gazprom Neft is sitting on loads of oil, and the company has close ties to the Russian government (Dimitri Medvedev used to be the head of Gazprom).

      The US may reduce its demand, but it will be too little, too late. The time to get serious about conservation and a sound dollar policy was years ago, and we now have to live with the consequences of Alan Greenspan's liquidity idiocy. Furthermore, any reductions in US demand will be offset by China and India, which are both unfortunately following in the footsteps of our failed transportation policies and adding thousands of gas-guzzling cars to their roads every day. Gas prices are going to stay high, too - a new refinery is scheduled to be built in South Dakota, but it's the first one in 40 years. Again, too little, too late.

      Crude oil is going to be harder to find, it's going to continue to be in the hands of hostile foreign governments (with a resurgent, nationalistic Russia at the forefront), and light sweet crude is going to be replaced by heavier, dirtier stuff.

      Oil has nowhere to go but up.
      View article »
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