David White

357 Comments

    • Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      I think I am noticing a connection between the Euro/US Dollar and POT. When the Euro goes up relative to the US Dollar, POT also seems to go up, and when the Euro goes down vs. the US Dollar POT seems to go down. I am wondering if some brokerage firm or firms are doing some kind of arbitrage on this???? Sep 05 11:17 AM
    • Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      Another notable Cramer call was to get rid of Garmin at the right time. A lot of people were following this. He has been recommending it for a long time. He said to get rid of it by Christmas. He was about as right as it was possible to be. Sep 05 11:12 AM
    • Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      He does cherry pick winners. However, he did clearly have his four horsemen a year ago that really did do quite well.

      Sep 05 11:06 AM
    • Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      You shouldn't be too hard on Cramer. He sticks his neck out a lot. It's inevitable that he is going to be wrong soem of the time. He says a lot of good things. He also says repeatedly that his show is primarily about educating people about the markets. I think he does that, even if he badly wrong some times. He does repeatedly tell people to do their own homework.

      Also it is important to keep in mind that he is usually advising people with a long term view of the market. I think there are a lot of stocks that are likely near their long term lows right now, even if the broader market goes down further. Some of Cramer's advice about buying now could turn out to be excellent advice over the long term.       Sep 05 07:51 AM
    • Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      I actually commented a week or so ago that the VIX looked like it my stage another rally to 30 or more. Both its chart, and the large amount of negative news seemed to dictate that. Correlating the VIX chart with the SPY chart and the DJIA charts' recent historical behavior versus the VIX leads one to believe that the SPY might drop 17 points or more and the DJIA might drop 1800 from their recent highs. The major support for the SPY in that approximate area is at about 111. Obviously history does nto have to exactly repeat itself. Still this does seem to be something we should keep in mind. I saw a news blurb indicating GS thought the bottom might be around 107 on the SPY.

      The charts would also tend to indicate that the market does not go straight down. With the big drop yesterday, it seems likely the market will begin a mild rally today or early next week before it drops again. Of course, this view is based mostly on technical analysis of the charts. Still the banking news has been bad of late. The Bank of China now seems to be in trouble also. This is not good news for the world economy.       Sep 05 07:45 AM
    • Global Growth Trades - Fast Money Recap (9/3/08) [view article]
      The petroleum data show much much bigger than expected draw downs, and next weeks data are yet to come. Add Hanna, IKE, and Josephine to the equation. Then you come up with a scenario in which oil and gas seem likely to rise. Sep 04 11:04 AM
    • Global Growth Trades - Fast Money Recap (9/3/08) [view article]
      Correction: The data from the shut ins and damage due to Hurricane Gustave will likely not appear until next week. The oil and gas companies did not really shut in until the very end of last week. The not as relevant petroleum data is due out today at 11am EST.
      Sep 04 10:54 AM
    • Global Growth Trades - Fast Money Recap (9/3/08) [view article]
      The market is starting to go down seemingly based on more bad news form the banking sector. LEH is struggling with KDB. MER and AIG are having similar difficulties with their balance sheets. Sep 04 10:31 AM
    • Global Growth Trades - Fast Money Recap (9/3/08) [view article]
      Also oil and natural gas (especially) are used in the production of fertilizer products. With the prices relatively fixed for the rest of this year, POT et al should make better than expected profits in Q3 with cheaper manufacturing costs due to the recent energy commodities price slide. This will likely be tempered by some hedging on the part of the fertilizer makers. Sep 04 10:23 AM
    • Global Growth Trades - Fast Money Recap (9/3/08) [view article]
      POT is down about $3 on the day. The only possible explanation I can find is that the US Dollar is up relative to the Euro. Usually this tends to make oil prices go down. However, oil has been mostly holding steady this morning. Perhaps the market is looking to the future. Perhaps the market knows something about the pertoleum stocks that will be bad news for POT? Perhaps this is just a semi-manipulation before the petroleum stocks announcement? Perhaps POT's profits do much better when the US Dollar is low and other currences are higher. If profit is reported in US Dollars, this makes some sense. I still think an upward movement for the near term should be in the cards, especially with the market holding up reasonably well today. The non-mfg stats led one to think inflation might be tempering. That should have been good. Sep 04 10:20 AM
    • Global Growth Trades - Fast Money Recap (9/3/08) [view article]
      The petroleum stocks numbers are due out a little later this morning. They seem likely to drive oil to the upside also. Sep 04 10:05 AM
    • Global Growth Trades - Fast Money Recap (9/3/08) [view article]
      I agree with the fast money folks about POT. The options bunching up make it look like the sellers are expecting a move upward. That is good if you are going long. We also have a parade of tropical storms / hurricanes headed toward us. Hanna is currently a tropical storm. People are guessing it will go up the east coast or into Florida. However, then there is IKE. IKE is a strong hurricane at this time. If it keeps its strength or strengthens further, it could be a very bad storm indeed (145mph sustained winds so far). Then there is Josephine. If this parade isn't enough to make oil prices turn around at least in the short term, I am not sure anything could. This likely turn in oil to the upside should likely affect other commodities as well such as grains. POT is a good bargain at its current price. It is a high growth stock for some time yet. Likely this is a good time to buy it. There is very good support at $145, and there is good reason to believe it can pop up to $163-4 and $175 in the short term (Perhaps as high as $190). Sep 04 10:03 AM
    • What's in Store for the Fertilizer Industry? [view article]
      Emerson: It looks to me like there is support at about $145. There was also support at about $163-4. It seemingly went through that today. The semi-major overhead resistance is at $175, $183, and $190. The options are really bunching up tightly now. It makes one think that a turn around is likely soon. I think the petroleum stocks news comes out tomorrow, since this is a holiday week. One would think that news would tend to make oil go up. That would likely have the same effect on other commodities and on POT. Of course, I thought Gustav would tend to make oil go up. Apparently the relief that it wasn't a category 4 to 5 hurricane was enough to put the lie to that scenario. A lot of people thought that oil would bottom in the $90 - $100 range (i.e. retrace to a point constituting about half its recent upward movement). We are getting very close to that now. If we get a sudden spate of very bad economic news, oil may go below even that. Without such an impetus, it seems likely to me that the soothsayers will be approximately correct. Sep 03 02:40 PM
    • What's in Store for the Fertilizer Industry? [view article]
      Baker Hughes just put out a report that the refinery damage from Gustav may be as bad as that for Katrina. This should buoy oil and gas. Also Zaks this morning put out a target estimate for POT of $250 based on 2008 earnings (estimated PE at that time would be 18.9). This would be for late Jan. or early Feb. in 2009, when Q4 results are announced. One of the most respected analyst groups is saying the stock will almost double in 6 months. That is encouraging. Sep 03 11:55 AM
    • What's in Store for the Fertilizer Industry? [view article]
      The fact that KDB seems to be seriously interested in buying a big part of Lehman is likely good news for the market. It may effectively make Lehman easily able to weather the bad loan problems yet to come. If this deal happens, the entire market may run up. It is an election year after all. Sep 03 11:11 AM
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