David White

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431 Comments

    • Thu Jun 19th 11:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      These Three Deep Sea Drillers Look Like a Bargain
      China announced today that they are going to raise their internal fuel prices. This will likely curb demand for oil from China to some extent. This may mean a short term drop in the price of oil. Of course, the long term increasingly higher demand picture is still in place. Still this will likely have a negative effect on the oil and oil service stocks short term.
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    • Wed Jun 18th 12:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      These Three Deep Sea Drillers Look Like a Bargain
      I should have added a couple of other factors that bode well for these stocks. First many oil companies have announced increases to their exploration budgets recently. Second President Bush is trying to get legislation enacted that would speed the permitting process for exploration. Both of the above should have a positive impact on these stocks.
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    • Thu Jun 12th 11:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      As a side note, I think FSLR has strong head winds coming its way even without the CdTe problems. The CIGS technology is cheaper. There are Nanosolar (already producing) and Miasole (scheduled to start production in October). When I talked to one of their engineering directors recently, he confirmed that this was still their expectation. Beyond these two there is Best Solar, which the LDK CEO is starting in China. He claims Best Solar will be producing 1 GW of thin film solar within two years. Then there is Q-cells which is starting a $3.5 billion thin film plant in Mexico. Beyond that there is the new UMG technology for polysilicone (i.e. so you can use less pure and much cheaper polysilicone to make approximately 14% efficient solar wafers). CSIQ has already started this. I think there are a few startups too. It is almost a certainty that LDK, TSL, etc. will expand their offerings to include these lower cost, less efficient wafers.
      FSLR (PE = 107) is simply too highly priced. This PE may come down within the next year, but not if the price of the stock rises. Beyond the next year, the competition looks increasingly stiff in the low cost solar area.
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    • Wed Jun 11th 02:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Good Time to Buy a 'Little' Shipping
      jimmy46: the point was that the earthquake disabled a some of the rail lines. The obvious answer to your question is that there are usually rail lines directly to and from the coast. The ships would provide the leg down the coast.

      E-money: I would be very careful with the puts on TBSI. You may be doing okay at the moment. However, the market has been tanking. All growth stocks are doing the same. Look at solar as an alternate example. There is some support at 1350 on the S&P500. It looks like the market has temporarily bounced. I personally am hoping that level will hold. Certainly there was bad news from the banks (new bad loans noted) in the last few trading days (Lehman has assuaged some of that angst by raising more capital). Oil recently skyrocketed 12% in one day. These kind of things will bring any growth stock down. If the market rebounds, the "little" shipping stocks mentioned will likely do well. Further NM has options to buy many of its "Chartered-In&quo... ships for values much less than the current ships' values. It has an excellent Price to Book Value ratio in addtion to great earnings growth. I also see the expansion in South America as a great strategic move.
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    • Tue Jun 10th 15:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Options Outlook: XLF, DHI, TOL, SWKS, DPTR, SNV, CCRT, CMA
      The Solar sector has also been hammered recently, even with oil prices going up. What do you think of this sector? It does seem like a possible upward pop play for options.
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    • Tue Jun 10th 14:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Options Outlook: XLF, DHI, TOL, SWKS, DPTR, SNV, CCRT, CMA
      What do you think of some of the hot groups that have been getting blasted lately. For instance, the shipping industry has had huge losses in the last week. This seems to be the result of a double or triple pronged sword. First the oil price increases of late have been depressing shipping stocks because people are afraid of the airline scenario (increased fuel costs = decreased or no profits). Second the markets have been going down, so shipping stock have gone down with them. Third the credit tightening in China, etc. may mean that there will be less shipping to there. Still this shoudl really be a wash as the worldwide credit tightening should lead to less shipping competition (fewer new ships being built). Further China will have to import a lot of raw materials to fix all of the earthquake damage. Also they are already short of their coal stock. They need to import a lot of this too. To me it seems like some of the better valued shippers such as NM (PE=4 with a new fleet coming into use in Q4) should be going up about now. Ditto TBSI, DRYS, etc.
      What do you think? Are they going to continue to be brought down by the financial sector and oil? Or will they start a trek up (perhaps tomorrow)? I note oil is down today, probably due to the decrease in the world use estimate for 2008 by EIA.
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    • Mon Jun 9th 04:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?
      I agree with much of what you have said. However, LDK may belong at the top of the list. Its EPS growth for 2009 should be outstanding. None of the other companies that you have listed have such growth lined up for 2009. The first major part of LDK's polysilicone plant is supposed to come online by the end of 2008. This should allow LDK to effectively double margins and production in 2009. The completion of LDK's small poly plant approximately at the end of June may well trigger a push higher in the stock. That completion will likely give credence to the LDK claim that they will complete the first major stage of thier large poly plant by the end of 2008. I believe a number of analysts will upgrade the stock at this point. It has obviously been unfairly punished for Charlie Situ's comments (and yet still continues to suffer from them).
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    • Thu May 29th 17:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      German Subsidy Fears Trigger Solar Downgrades
      Oil is down more than $4 per barrel today. This likely accounts for the big losses in most energy stocks. It seems likely there will be a slight bounce tomorrow in both oil and in energy stocks. FSLR is butting up against the bottom of its bottom Bollinger band. this makes the likelihood of a rally off of this point an even stronger possibility. Recent rallies of FSLR off of bollinger band bottoms have been 50 points or more within the space of about a month. Will this happen again?????
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    • Thu May 29th 15:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      German Subsidy Fears Trigger Solar Downgrades
      When you look at the amount of the U.S. trade deficit due to oil importation (and this seems to be growing quickly to the glee of the arab nations), you quickly see what a slippery slope not encouraging alternate energy is for a net importer of oil and gas. Germany likley will decide it needs to keep its subsidy policy in place (or perhaps even better it). The U.S. certainly needs to encourage solar much more than it has. We all know why the dollar goes down in relation to the Euro when the price of oil goes up. I find it hard to believe the Germans are foolish enough to back away from a policy that is clearly working in their favor.
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    • Thu May 29th 15:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      German Subsidy Fears Trigger Solar Downgrades
      STP issued $500,000,000 in convertible notes. That's a good reason for it to go down. As for this Germany solar policy speculation. It is just that so far. Germany has many things to consider. If Germany does not encourage the adoption of solar, they will have to pay for oil or uranium or natural gas in the future. Any of those alternatives will likely cost their tax payers more than the solar subsidy. Those alternatives are all likely to increase in price over time. Germany would likely be better off in the long run not to decrease the solar subisdy. Of course, you haven't even mentioned the Kyoto issues at this point, which are still yet another good reason for Germany to keep their solar subsidy.
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    • Thu May 29th 14:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Yahoo Settle? Fast Money Recap (5/28/08)
      Apparently a finance firm Kaufman Bros., with no previous experience in the solar arena, published ratings on 6 stocks in this arena. Notably they gave SPWR (P/E approx. 300 on Yahoo) a buy and SFLR a hold (P/E approx. 100 on Yahoo). Seems questionable to me since FSLR has historically outstripped SPWR in growth and consistently good earnings reports. FSLR may be getting more competition, but so is everyone else. If SPWR is a buy, I would think you would have to consider FSLR a buy also. Yahoo states its actual analyst average rating is 2.2 (a buy).
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    • Thu May 29th 14:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Yahoo Settle? Fast Money Recap (5/28/08)
      STP did not go down on just the Germany news. It had another reason. It just issued $500,000,000 worth of convertible notes. This effectively dilutes the stock value. Natuarally it would go down (at least temporarily).
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    • Thu May 29th 13:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Yahoo Settle? Fast Money Recap (5/28/08)
      Currently the average target price for FSLR is $330.
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    • Thu May 29th 12:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Yahoo Settle? Fast Money Recap (5/28/08)
      Some solar stocks have been downgraded recently due to increased competition. Merrill Lynch kept FSLR at buy even though it is exposed to the "possible" legislative cut in Germany's solar subsidy. This also would bode well for a bounce from this level. Perhaps all this bad news has this solar stock (and others) down in the dumps for the moment. Sentiment can change quickly. Germany is now worried about the cost of their solar subisdy. However, when they balance it against the eventual cost of not having it (i.e. buying oil or uranium instead as they rise in future years), Germany may decide the solar subsidy costs are going to be cheap by comparison. This is without even taking into account the Kyoto concerns, which solar also addresses.
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    • Thu May 29th 11:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Yahoo Settle? Fast Money Recap (5/28/08)
      I probably should have mentioned that the recent run up in solar was largely due to a great earnings being reported by virtually all of the solar companies. Since this run up has now virtually disappeared, one might think there would be a bounce back up. The great earnings were after all very real.
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