David White

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+1 / -1

431 Comments

    • Wed Sep 10th 08:44 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman Hangover - Fast Money Recap (9/9/08)
      POT: FCX announced today that it will defer 200,000 ounces of gold and 150M pounds of copper that were expected for 2008 delivery. This should prop up these commodity prices. Any upward movement in commodities (or cessation of downward movement) is generally good for POT and MOS. This is another positive indicator for grain futures and POT.
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    • Wed Sep 10th 08:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman Hangover - Fast Money Recap (9/9/08)
      POT: OPEC cut production by 500,000 barrels a day. It currently looks like Ike will strengthen again, but it will hit the Texas coast around Corpus Christi -- well south of the main oil infrastructure. Still the bulk of oil and gas in the Gulf has been shut in. Expect the US Petroleum Stocks report to reflect this today. It will actaully reflect the shut ins from Gustav, but that should give us a good idea what next weeks report is likely to be also. Oil is up slightly at this time. The Euro is down vs. the US Dollar. Grains are roughly even. Total publicly stated today that they believed $100/barrel oil was a stable price (i.e. oil is not likely to fall much further). The financials are still a problem for the market. However, the market seems likely to rebound today after its big losses yesterday. Further Lehman seems to be saying that they can survive. They are planning a number of sales to bolster their bottom cash position in order to pay for coming losses. The fact that they have a cogent plan is a good thing. The news that KDB is no longer considering investing in Lehman is old news. It brought the market down yesterday. Ditto AIG. All told these indicators seem to be neutral to up for POT and MOS. These two stocks have been battered recently. They seem to be relative bargains at their current prices. The analysts' 1 year target price for each is double or more the current value. This may be a great time to buy for the short term. They are each due to rebound. The health of the overall market may determine whether you want to keep them longer for the short term. However, if you are thinking long term, you probably won't go too far wrong at these prices.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 15:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      The current prediction is that Ike will likely pass to the south of the major oil infrastucture in the Gulf. However, there is still the possibility that it will veer to the north (and hit the major infrastructure). We will have to wait to see how much strenght it gains over water. Regardless the oil infrastructure is still shut in until after Ike passes. Oil is still currently falling. But grains seem to be generally staying steady. If oil rallies at all tomorrow on the Petroleum stocks report, the Ag stock are poised to go up. Perhaps they will go up anyway. They do seem like bargains at current prices.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 14:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      The latest news says that 77% of oil and 65% of gas are still offline in the Gulf. This seems likely to remain this way until after Ike blows through.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 13:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      KDB is apparently no longer in the market for Lehman (or part of it). This puts Lehman in danger. This in turn is very bad news for the equites markets. To some extent this is bad news for MOS and POT. However, they should benefit to some extent from the weakness in the US Dollar that this particular situation brings about.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 12:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      Also the Euro is up significantly against the US Dollar today. Generally the Ag stocks have tended to go up in this scenario as commodities can be used as a hedge against US Dollar devaluation. This tends to push commodities up. Hence it tends to push Ag stocks up. This is another factor which makes the short term Ag stock long trade look good.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 12:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      One should keep in mind that MOS hit a high of about $163 in mid-June 2008 before oil really started to fall. It has a lot of room to the upside. The oil and commodity (as well as economic) declines are simply not enough to substantially effect MOS profits this year (or likely next).
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    • Tue Sep 9th 12:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      The first minor resistance level for MOS is around 90, so there is good easy upside potential in the next couple of days.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 12:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      Further some oil companies are delaying their output recovery from Gustav due to Ike. Shell just made such an announcement. This mean there could be a cummulative 3-4 week downturn/loss of production due to Gustav/Ike. This is considerable. It should buoy oil at least temporarily. This should also help Ag stocks.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 11:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      The mere fact that the gulf is largely shutting in for Hurricane Ike will effect oil production, refining, and delivery of oil via shipping to the US. These all should help buoy oil prices, which in turn should help Ag stock prices.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 10:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      I should add that the PEs for POT and MOS after Q3's earnings are reported will be 15.3 and 11.8 at current stock prices. Both of these companies have been beating earnings estimates recently, so the actual figures might be slightly better. The Q4 PE's for each are 11.2 and 8.5 respectively. Obviously POT has the higher predicted growth rate for 2009 at about 70%.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 10:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      Addendum to POT/MOS comment: POT and MOS tend to trade in concert with the oil and grain commodity prices. However, they are now good value plays. At some point there is likely to be a disconnect if oil continues to fall. The world has a huge appetite for food. That is not likely to change if oil prices go down. Also grain prices do not have to be extremely high for farmers to still want to buy fertilizer. The demand for POT and MOS products still looks very strong for a long time into the future.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 10:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)
      Now it's Tuesday. POT and MOS are down substantially from Monday's open. POT is now trading around $145 -- a major support point for it. This stock could break through this support. However, there is a storm in the gulf currently. Plus the petroleum stock news due out tomorrow will likely show draw downs as a lot of the gulf has been shut in. This includes some major refineries. It seems likely this will buoy oil and gas prices at least temporarily. This would tend to buoy commodity prices in general. Plus there is a looming OPEC decision. They can only really cut production or leasve it the same. Neither of these choices should cause oil to go down. Obviously a cut would buoy prices even more. Further the market seems momentarily a little steadier after the US government took over FRE and FNM.

      All of this means that this is likely a short term buying opportunity for POT and MOS. Of course, if POT breaks substantially below $145, all bets are off. A stop around $140 might be wise.
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    • Mon Sep 8th 07:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GSEs Into Conservatorship: Can Housing Stabilize Now?
      If the US Government actually holds all of the GSE's, etc. for 5 or more years, they may actually end up making a huge profit. For now it is good that banks will be more likely to make loans, when they know they can sell some of them to FNM and FRE. FNM and FRE are now more clearly government backed. Thsi ought to help stabilize the housing market.
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    • Fri Sep 5th 11:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      I think I am noticing a connection between the Euro/US Dollar and POT. When the Euro goes up relative to the US Dollar, POT also seems to go up, and when the Euro goes down vs. the US Dollar POT seems to go down. I am wondering if some brokerage firm or firms are doing some kind of arbitrage on this????
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