David White

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431 Comments

    • Wed Sep 3rd 10:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What's in Store for the Fertilizer Industry?
      I agree. It does seem the long term prospects for POT are excellent. Don't know what's in store for the short term though. September is a bad month. It's negative historically. POT is down again today. However, that may just make it a bargain in the short term. I think the petroleum stats get reported tomorrow since this is a holiday week. Since most things were shut down (including shipping intakes), it seems likely that the petroleum draw downs will buoy the commodities, especially oil. This may help POT et al in the short term. Does anyone have any idea when these stocks are likely to turn around? The fundamentals are really good, and everyone wants lots of food to eat.
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    • Sat Aug 30th 12:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Gas Discoveries a Boon for U.S. Energy Sector
      One might think that the possibility that Russia may cut off or restrict oil and gas flow to Europe would make the prices of these items go up. There is some logic to this line of thinking. However, this threat mostly affects Western Europe economies. As a consequence it has a specific negative effect on the Euro value. The result may be that the US dollar will strengthen against the Euro. This would tend to make oil prices go down. I think you can see that the two effects might roughly cancel each other out with respect to the prices of oil and gas in US dollar terms.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 12:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Gas Discoveries a Boon for U.S. Energy Sector
      On the negative side, the dollar seems to be going up today. This would tend to make oil and gas cheaper. This might exert downward pressure on the stocks. However, that effect should be roughly cancelled out by the fact that a strengthening US dollar also makes US equites more attractive. This should tend to make the price of good stocks go up. CHK and XTO are good stocks.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 12:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Gas Discoveries a Boon for U.S. Energy Sector
      The Destin Pipeline Co. just declared Force Majeure on its Gulf operations effective 9am Aug. 30. This pipeline carries 1.2bcf of gas per day of production. CHK and XTO are looking better for a short term move upward.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 12:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Gas Discoveries a Boon for U.S. Energy Sector
      Apparently there is strong belief that Gustav will be a strong hurricane. Norfolk Southern has just onnounced that they will reroute all New Orleans bound train traffic to Memphis. If nothing is happening, it sure is having a significant effect. Hanna is apparently right behind Gustav. It seems likely oil prices will rise next week with all of geopolitical and weather related problems impinging on the industry.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 12:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Gas Discoveries a Boon for U.S. Energy Sector
      Another short term factor seems to be the Russia theat. Some are now knowledgeably speculating that Russia may cut off or cut down oil deliveries to Western Europe in response to the threat of EU sanctions and NATO naval actions in the Black Sea. The rumors are that the Kremlin is notifying Russian oil companies that they may be told soon to cut off or restrict oil flow to Europe. It seems likely there is some truth to the rumors. We will have to wait to see how this will all play out.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 11:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Gas Discoveries a Boon for U.S. Energy Sector
      Most of the oil and gas companies are shutting in significant production in the Gulf. They are already evacuating personnel.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 11:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Gas Discoveries a Boon for U.S. Energy Sector
      Gustav is now supposed to barely touch Cuba (or miss it altogether). It is supposed to gain tremendous strength as it move towar the Yucatan channel. At this time it is forecast to be a strong storm headed straight at the gulf oil infrastucture. Some areas around New Orleans are also slated to evacuate on Sat. morning. It should definitely be hurricane strength -- perhaps a very strong hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the western edge of the Gulf.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 10:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Gas Discoveries a Boon for U.S. Energy Sector
      CHK and XTO are supposed to be good plays now because natural gas is relatively inexpensive compared to oil (a much higher ratio than normal). If you add to this the two storms that are headed toward the Gulf currently, then they are really good short term palys (assuming oil doesn't go down too much). The storm seem likely to prevent shipments to LNG ports in the Gulf to some degree. The storms may also do some damage to the natural gas producing infrastucture in the Gulf. Even if they don't, there is definitely an emotional factor. Gustav seems especially likely to head toward the Gulf production and/or shipping terminals in the Gulf. Hanna looks like it is on roughly the same course at the moment, but it is a little too early to tell. These two companies are mostly land based, so they are not really prey to the Gulf's weather vagaries. They seem to be a good short term buy (1 to 2 weeks), and they are very possibly a great long term buy.
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    • Thu Aug 28th 09:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011
      8-28-08: Oil is up again today. This is probably bullish for POT. The Q2 GDP was also substantially better than expected. Corn is down a little. All this seems like it should eventually lead to a gain in POT on the day today. Of course, it just recently went above its 200 day moving average. It could go back to it again. The odds should favor upward to a slight degree. The good economic number should generally make commodities go up. POT is a good stock, even Cramer touts it.
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    • Wed Aug 27th 12:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solarfun Beats Street, Triples Profits, Tumbles Anyway
      I think the street actually expected much better earnings from SOLF after such high lights as LDK, CSIQ, and STP recently. Also SOLF margins were significantly down, when other solars avoided that problem for the most part. SOLF's margins are some of the worst in the industry now. I also did not see an announcement (or hint) of any SOLF plans to begin making UMG PV solar. SOLF needs to start this process to keep up with the other solars, especially with relatively poor margins. UMG solar would improve margins. All in all it seemed to show that management at SOLF is not on the ball. CSIQ and LDK had much better results, and they have a much better outlook going forward.
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    • Tue Aug 26th 09:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      If all the financial news wasn't bad enough, there is hurricane Gustav over Haiti about now. Its future destination isn't clear at this time. By Wednesday we should know if it will threaten oil in the Gulf. If so, that would likely push oil up, which would likely push the equities markets down in the current environment.
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    • Tue Aug 26th 08:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      When Martin Weiss starts coming out with lists of major banks that may fail in the near future, you know there is trouble on the horizon. He was even talking about splitting up your assets to make sure they were all insured by the FDIC. Most of the banks he has listed are the ones we all have been hearing write down notices about: Citi, Wachovia, WaMu, HSBC, ETrade, etc.
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    • Tue Aug 26th 08:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Good article. News is important though. There is a lot of bad news around lately. It almost has to push the market lower. Also we are in the dog days of August now. It is a good time for a decline before a possible October rally???

      One particularly interesting point is that the VIX just bounced off its support at 18.50. From the weekly chart it looks like it could be headed up to 30+ again. Last time it did this the SPY lost 17 points, and the DJIA lost about 1800. We could possibly see a repeat. The news has been particularly bad. Now there is a lot of talk circulating about bank failures in addition to all of the normal woes. Further the European economy seems to be weakening. They have been big buyers of US products recently. If they slow down their buying due to a weakening European economy and a stronger US Dollar, the US economy may really fall hard. Exports have been our one bright spot lately. Without them, the US economy would have slumped a lot further a lot faster. It is looking like it may get there yet. Ouch! Hopefully the decrease in oil prices due to a stronger US dollar (and less hedging on the US dollar with commodities), will help to offset the coming European weakness. It seems critical that the US reduce its importation of oil as much as it can to reduce the strain on the economy from that quarter. Carpool people.
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    • Mon Aug 25th 11:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Today the VIX has made the start of what could be a big move upward. It has apparently bounced off its support level of about 18.50. If it continues to go up from here to 30 or more, we could see a large near term drop in the SPY and DJIA. The last move upward translated into an approximate 17 point drop in the SPY and about an 1800 point drop in the DJIA. That certainly sounds bleak to me.
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