David White

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431 Comments

    • Mon Aug 25th 09:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Of course, many, many people are predicting at least one more big downward movement. The overriding reason there is still the precarious loan problem. The news Friday was that a much higher percentage of loans were becoming delinquent (results for July vs. June and 1 year ago).
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    • Mon Aug 25th 09:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      MSmailbox: Bad joke! I am sure there are some good regional banks which are in fact good buys at the moment.

      With the economic weakness starting to show in Europe, it seems likely that the ECB will not raise rates anytime soon (or may even lower rates). This makes the rise of the dollar more likely. Barring huge oil price increases, which favor the Euro over the US Dollar, it seems likely the dollar will rise over the next several months. This might just make US equities markets a good place to be (at least in good stocks).
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    • Mon Aug 25th 08:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Sorry. I meant the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. It was lower for July than June.
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    • Mon Aug 25th 08:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      The Euro-zone factory orders and the negative news about the KDB views on buying Lehman should turn the market negative today. The Chicago PMI data was also bad. The SPY is already down $0.91 today. It seems likely we will have another 200+ down day on the DJIA.

      Rachael Granby: Good article, but great smile.
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    • Mon Aug 25th 08:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Cycles and Stocks: The Sun Also Rises
      There will be a place for the more expensive polysilicone solar when reduced prices hit because it is also more efficient. However, the polysilicone solar manufacturers who are already starting to diversify into UMG solar will be ahead of the game when the price decline (probable demand increase) comes. The two polysilicone PV companies I know of who are doing this currently are CSIQ and LDK. LDK is particularly well positioned. They have significant fixed price long term contracts. The are expanding to UMG solar.They are building two polysilicone manufacturing plants, which will allow them to significantly cut costs for polysilicone (even if the prices decrease as suggested above). Other companies are likely to follow suit. Also there are other players in the CIGS area besides Nanosolar. CIGS will likely become a big factor by 2010-2011. The stocks like FSLR with high multiples will be hurt by this. The stocks with low margins are also significantly at risk. It will be interesting to see how this whole situation plays out. Solar does seem about to become a major player in the energy market.
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    • Fri Aug 22nd 11:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      The news says stocks are up on the prospect of no Fed interest rate increases in the near future (on Bernanke's comments). This may be good in that sense. However, it is very bad in the sense that the economy has to be in real trouble for the Fed not to be raising rates now. I agree the Fed should not raise rates. The banks need all the help they can get (as do homeowners). Further you need the low rates to make the homes more affordable at their current prices (or not too much lower). Still the infaltion numbers have been terrible, even counting on some let up later in the year. To ignore inflation at this time, the situation has to be dire. The sidelines are looking great at this point. I sure can't see the upside for most stocks, but apparently others can't see the downside. Don't you long for those nice days of an overall consistent uptrend?
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    • Fri Aug 22nd 10:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Oh, did you see the SA news about the mortgage loan default rates in July. That looked awful. People must really be reaching if they think there's a big upside push soon.
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    • Fri Aug 22nd 10:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      It seems all the financials are up today on the speculation that KDB will try to buy Lehman. Lehman couldn't manage to raise money last time it tried (or at least Lehman has a hard time of it). It seems likely to me that this speculation may find its end in the dust heap. Perhaps Bernanke et al will engineer another buyout by a US bank. GS seem like they might be a good candidate? It does seem like the pain has to return soon, expecially with Putin and Iran making all kinds of trouble. I am amazed the market is up so much today. Anyone have any predictions for the near term. I still see a channel to the upside based on today's action. However, it looks like it might end soon.
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    • Thu Aug 21st 09:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks After Earnings: Suntech Up, ReneSola Down
      I checked one further item. The recent short percentage for STP was about 14% of the float. It was about 6% for SOL. When the stock gives out good news (and a stock is heavily shorted), the stock tends to rise more quickly than a stock which is not heavily shorted.

      Of course, once this rally is over, the people who originally shorted STP will likely again begin shorting it from a higher price basis. This will drive the price of the stock down more quickly. You might want to factor this into your thinking too.
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    • Thu Aug 21st 09:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil and Commodities Pricing: Fundamentals, Bubble or Manipulation?
      BS Detector: Your argument is logical to an extent, but it is unconvincing. Greed is often a short term thing. Some people want to get as rich as they can as fast as they can. Further I am sure it would appeal to some Arabs to really stick it to the large oil consuming nations of the west, especially the "Great Satan". Also the alternative energy revolution was coming even at lower prices. Some oil barons might view this as another reason to make as much money as possible before oil begins to decline again.

      I am by no means saying that I necessarily believe this is going on. I don't disbelieve it either. I just thought it would be an interesting thing to check into. It does seem like a very possible (or even probable) scenario.
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    • Thu Aug 21st 08:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks After Earnings: Suntech Up, ReneSola Down
      Also STP is a little more on the retail end of the solar manufacturing business. Most people seem to think that this is the area that will get squeezed first when prices eventually start to come down. This seems like another reason to chose SOL over STP as a longer term investment.
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    • Thu Aug 21st 08:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil and Commodities Pricing: Fundamentals, Bubble or Manipulation?
      Has anyone checked to see if the OPEC oil barons are at all behind the speculation on commodity futures (especially oil futures)? If they are a substantial force in this area, this could be a sneaky way for them to drive up oil prices, while seemingly providing the amount of oil needed to meet current demand. Is there a way of checking on this?
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    • Thu Aug 21st 07:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil and Commodities Pricing: Fundamentals, Bubble or Manipulation?
      At my first look at this situation, I was also suspecting a deliberate attempt at manipulation. Now I suspect that is not so much the case. Rather I think there were a lot of speculators who were buying commodity futures to hedge against the dollar going down. I think this likely worked for them for the most part. When the dollar bottomed and started upward, a lot of those speculators sold out of their futures positions. This created a spike downward in demand. That let to the big price falls we have seen. Some of the speculators may have even been shorting the futures (selling naked futures with the thought of covering them at a lower price). I am not sure I really consider this market manipulation. We might be better off if there were better restrictions on it though. Then we wouldn't have the wild swings that we are now experiencing. Dramatic movements are generally not good for the general public or the health of the markets. I have not thought of exactly what restrictions should be imposed though. In some ways it seems unfair not to let people hedge against the dollar with commodities. However, if one company is controlling 11% of a commodity market almost entirely for speculative purposes, it does seem that some regulation should be imposed. These specualtors could be accounting for 50% to 100% or more of the total demand for a commodity. They are likely doing this by just rotating from near term expiration futures to farther out expiration futures. You would have to think that this high level of speculation might account for a 25% to 50% (or even more) increase in the cost of the commodity. It doesn't seem right that the average consumer should be paying for the big, well organized, speculators to make money.

      Of course, there are also companies who buy a lot of futures to guarantee their cost of goods to some extent. Some of these companies also speculate beyond their needs. I am not sure how exactly you regulate all of this. Did you have some particular suggestions?
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    • Thu Aug 21st 07:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks After Earnings: Suntech Up, ReneSola Down
      I think you should change the title of this blog. SOL's earnings were not down! They more than tripled, and they beat estimates by a fair margin.
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    • Thu Aug 21st 06:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks After Earnings: Suntech Up, ReneSola Down
      Actually on a downturn, they might both go down about the same percentage. However, it is much more likely that SOL will regain its losses more quickly because it is a much better value for the money. After another downturn, investors will be taking an even stronger look at value. They will be looking for solid bargains, not so much emotionally well like stocks.
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