JosephKr

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    • Wed Sep 24th 00:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Google Phone: Blockbuster or Bust?
      Just a couple of things:

      1) Google touts open platform for all and then ties itself to an exclusive with fairly one tenth the coverage of its major competitor (in this case Apple), not counting unknown deals for other countries (where Apple is already well-established).

      2) Apple has already sold 5 million iphones in Q3 and is well on track to exceed this in Q4, regardless of any perceived economic downturn whether domestically or abroad.

      3) The current market instability will hopefully get resolved once Congress gets off its collective tuchuss and gives Messrs Paulsen and Bernanke what they need to restore investor confidence (and thanks to Mr. Buffett for his move today). at which point everyone who bought Apple between $120 and $130 is gonna be ecstatic with the results when the stock goes right back to $180 to $190 where it rightfully belongs (and beyond).
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 01:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Five Reasons Steve Ballmer Thinks Apple's a Buy
      From Dithers up above:
      "Fact is, an Apple Macbook costs $1049, which is maybe $300 more than a crappy Windows laptop."

      AND...wait a second....that MacBook will also run Windows.....BETTER and FASTER than the comparable Windows machine! So in fact, you are buying TWO MACHINES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE!

      THIS IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE.

      Maybe not $650, but I'll bet when the next quarterly report comes out, $250-$275 will not be out of the realm of possibility. You heard it here first.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 19th 03:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple: Great Company with Lofty Valuation - Due for Pullback
      Mark: If you're so sure the stock will pull back, then a smarter course of action would be to buy puts instead of shorting outright. That would limit your downside potential and provide technically unlimited upside without fear of a squeeze.
      Apparently you didn't do this, which immediately casts doubt on the whole validity of your article, let alone the glaring errors in assumption that you make.
      Just enjoy yourself as you keep watching the stock rise over time. You can think about all the money you either left on the table or lost outright.
      Disclosure: VERY long Apple. (and darn glad to be there!)
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 00:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Best Buy to Sell iPhones: The Symbiosis Grows
      Oh yes, forgot: those 60 million apps will turn into 300 million plus apps by the end of the year, if not more.
      This is like a juggernaut that just knows no limits and keeps getting stronger and stronger and stronger......
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 00:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Best Buy to Sell iPhones: The Symbiosis Grows
      Well, I predicted that Apple's stock would close first at $180 by Monday and subsequently by today. It hit $180 in the mid-afternoon today and then retreated but still closed strongly.
      Now let's look at the possibility of Best Buy numbers:
      If Best Buy just rolls the iPhone into the existing 970 US stores (they have another 400 or so elsewhere), and sels only 10 per week per store, then for the remaining 18 or so weeks between Sept 1 and the end of the year, that's another mere 174,600 phones. At a subsidy of only $350 per phone (go the low side on this), that's a mere $61,110,000 added to Apple's bottom line.
      Now, does anyone in their right mind expect Best Buy to average only 10 phones per store per week?!
      Let;s try more like 10 phones per store per DAY.
      That turns the cash into $414,190,000 for Apple's bottom line.
      So now you see why this move makes eminent sense. And those numbers only take into account the September to December period, including (let's not forget), the holiday selling season!
      So now you know what to expect just from that little move.
      So....do you think the stock is going to sit at $179 and change for long?
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 12th 00:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPhone Apps: One Month, 60 Million Downloads
      Just an interesting note: One of the fellows on today's edition of Fast Money on CNBC quipped that Apple has "already sold 3,000,000" 3G iPhones. That's since July 11, exactly one month. That works out to at least 9,000,000 phones for the quarter NOT COUNTING the pending 22 extra countries coming on line on August 22! That would be a minimum of 36,000,000 phones per year if the rate holds, again without those 22 other countries. See where this is going? Get your stock TODAY, because $174 is gonna look like a huge BARGAIN in a few weeks! You read it here first!
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 12th 00:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPhone App Developers Find Weaknesses in AT&T's Fake Walls
      Just an interesting note: One of the fellows on today's edition of Fast Money on CNBC quipped that Apple has "already sold 3,000,000" 3G iPhones. That's since July 11, exactly one month. That works out to at least 9,000,000 phones for the quarter NOT COUNTING the pending 22 extra countries coming on line on August 22! That would be a minimum of 36,000,000 phones per year if the rate holds, again without those 22 other countries. See where this is going? Get your stock TODAY, because $174 is gonna look like a huge BARGAIN in a few weeks! You read it here first!
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 11th 23:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPhone Apps: One Month, 60 Million Downloads
      I do agree that stating that Apps will become saturated is more or less like saying that if the oceans evaporate the air will become saturated with water vapor. There's about as much chance of that happening in either case as snowball in....well, you know.
      Anyway, back to the important point here: Your intrepid blog contributor here went out on a collective limb and predicted that the stock would trade between $180 and $185 by the close Monday (today). We almost made it. The high was $176.50 towards the 2/3 mark of today's session. The stock settled up $4 and change, whcih still isn;t bad, but I admit that I missed the mark by sizable margin.
      See? Someone who takes responsibility for being wrong.
      However, if you take a closer look at the App store numbers and extrapolate the significance of 22 extra countries by August 22, one of them being Singapore with Southeast Asia's largest carrier being the provider, you'll find that aside from the incredibly huge number of dollars the phone sales will bring, it's probably a safe bet that the App store will be closer to the $1 billion mark for Apple within 2 quarters, much more quickly than a full year.
      Meantime, let's reserve Tuesday and Wednesday for another "kick" at the $180-$185 cat. I think the stock will make it with room to spare.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 6th 23:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Research In Motion's 3G Counteroffensive: The Smartphone Arms Race Escalates
      And "User 210048" turned out to be "Esoteric1" just so you won't be confused by my reference.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 6th 23:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Research In Motion's 3G Counteroffensive: The Smartphone Arms Race Escalates
      First, let's thank User 210048 just above for giving the more than 25,000 iPhone developers out there four new ideas to capitalize upon. Yes, you can almost taste the sarcasm.

      The point being missed by most (but not all) on this blog is that the iPhone is NOT, repeat NOT, a phone. It's a mobile computer. I think it very amusing that there is a continual flow of "rumors" surrounding the possibility of a tablet Mac, and meantime the tablet Mac is here. It's the iPhone, a tablet Mac, just a bit smaller (for the time being). And as our friend above just demonstrated, there is a literal army of developers out there willing to make sure that any iPhone shortcomings are quickly overcome by appropriate application innovation that is instantly available through the AppStore!

      Now, to those of you out there who think that AT&T is going to sit on its tuchuss and not expand and improve its 3G service in the NYC area, you must be living in a fools' paradise. Ergo, the disparity, whether perceived or real, between Verizon and AT&T and therefore between RIMM and Apple service will shortly become less and less of a factor. This will of course have its inevitable effect on more and more corporate users not only because of service improvements, but because of the advent of MobileMe (a far better implementation of push technology than any competitor's model), and perhaps even the iPod's influence away from the office. (What, you think that corporate BB users don't have families with iPods?)

      That may sound weird, but it's an intriguing thought: what if, as a natural progression, mostl current iPod users decide to upgrade? Now let's see: if they're going to upgrade and they have the iPod and a cellphone, wouldn't many think that it made more sense to combine the two devices instead of having to keep separate ones? Gee....I wonder what device they'd be likely to pick? The numbers then become fairly staggering for Apple!

      As I stated two nights ago: $180 to $185 by the close Monday. Let's see how good a "Nostradamus"... for Apple I turn out to be.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 5th 17:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPhone Production Rumors Swirl
      Steve is just fine. So let's not try to artificially muddy the waters with nonsense arguments to try to worry folks about things that really don't mean squat as far as hard numbers are concerned.
      Also, for those worried about perfection, you can be sure that some percentage of hpones will have problems. Big deal. It happens with every manufacturer and every handset and should not be taken as an end of the world scenario just because it's Apple and Apple is supposed to be perfect.
      Honestly people!
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 5th 16:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPhone Production Rumors Swirl
      OK, for the skeptics out there, let's redo the math a bit and come to some conclusions (hopefully).
      800K phones per week for these last 26 weeks of the year would equal 20.8 million phones. Let's assume that they make that goal. The range for carrier payment has been from $350 to $500 each. Let's assume just $300. That gives $6.24 BILLION. Assume only a 30% margin, and you have close to an extra $1.9 BILLION in net profit over the next 2 quarters.
      Can Apple sell that many phones? As of August 22, there will be 70 countries in the fold selling the phones. Take off the 3 weeks between now and August 22, and that leaves 23 weeks. 800K by 70 countries gives less than 12,000 phones per country per week. I think this is more than achievable, especially if the pundits are correct and Apple's handset share will be only a few percentage points. If anything, Apple ought to be out there figuring out how to find a secondary manufacturer!
      As for the stock price, it's been manipulated artificially low. Today it showed some rebound and I expect that it will surge towards $180 to $185 by this time next week.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 02:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple: Are Investors Overlooking Cash Earnings?
      The math is intriguing, but the estimates are low.

      I predict sales of 15 million iPhones by end of CY08, and a further 35 to 45 million in CY09 as momentum builds and supplies ramp up to satisfy demand.

      The point many analysts miss is that this is not just a phone. It's a real computing platform, the start of a trend which will be amplified significantly with continued software improvements (for example advanced GPS capabilities) and a new product announcement within the next two to four months

      Couple this with the app store and even assuming that each new user of the iPhone spends an average of just $10.00 in the app store and you see the potential for another free billion of revenue which will be accounted for on an immediate basis.

      Actual FCF/share will resemble something more like $20.

      The stock is still extremely underpriced at $250 let alone $160. A more reasonable expectation within two quarters would be between $275 and $300, and that doesn't assume an interim split. Assuming 35x, it should even give Google a run for its money on a per share price.

      Those willing to be aggressive on accumulation and willing to wait out what I feel is a contrived pullback will be richly rewarded.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 24th 01:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Erases All of Post Earnings Losses
      As I predicted, we are on track to end the week between $175 and $180 if today's performance is any indication of potential for Thursday and Friday. By the end of the month the stock will likely be close to $195. AT&T's side comment about the 3G iPhone is another good reason to be confident in Apple's outlook, and the rollout in another 20 countries for August 20th will ensure iPhone 3G sales of between 10 and 15 million by the end of calendar 2008. This will add substantially to the sales and profits, and I suspect that $235 to $250 by year's end is not totally out of line. The wise investor will take note and act accordingly to avoid missing out on the upside.
      View article »
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