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  • Returning to a Gold Standard Is a Bad Idea
    I hear the "accountability&q... argument from hard money advocates all the time. People who follow this line of reasoning are kidding themselves. A gold standard is not a magic elixer that leads to accountability. If they put us on gold, I guarantee you that phony coins, bars, accounts, etc; will proliferate like wildfire. Everybody will need to become familiar with methods for testing the specific gravity of objects.

    The only way to end fraud is to prosecute it.

    The only way to mange the money supply is to manage the money supply. Or, as I've been putting it, "Either we manage the money supply, or it manages us". And again: Under the current system the money supply is managed by a Federal Reserve which is accountable to Congress, but not transparent enough for some people. Under a gold standard the money supply is managed by miners and foreign vaults. That would be better... how? If you want the Federal Reserve to be accountable... why... hold them accountable! Force them to open their books and charter a new Fed if they refuse. Don't eliminate the whole concept of managing the money supply. That's just abdicating all responsibility and turning our fate over to the fickle winds fortune.

    Oh, and then there's the incentive for 3rd world countries to poison all their streams with mercury because suddenly they are full of "money", and mercury is the easiest way to separate the gold. If anything, we should be paying these nations to NOT mine. These poor people kill themselves digging up that useless rock. What a waste. What an international travesty it is already, and it would be even worse under a gold standard.


    On Dec 30 08:56 AM archman82011 wrote:

    > Return to the gold standard would mean one thing:
    >
    > Accountability.
    >
    > We can't have that now can we? That means if we have accountability
    > in our finance system, we have to have accountability in government.
    > If we have accountability in government, that means our citizens
    > have to be more accountable, and return to an ethical and moral country.
    >
    >
    > We can't have that though. That means minimal corruption, less graft
    > and greed. Our country would have to do what is best for the majority
    > instead of what is best for the select few.
    >
    > Good golly we can't have that now can we????
    >
    >
    Dec 30 18:59 pm |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dominion and Realty Income Increase Dividend Payouts
    As mentioned before, the math on your D increase wasn't right. How much leverage does O have? It looks like they've held up a lot better than some of the leveraged RE funds I've had, which got pounded. I looked at O's Yahoo profile and they say it's retail properties. With all the bad news coming ouf of that sector, I wouldn't want to be relying on those leases for income.
    Dec 29 21:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • China's Greatest Trade Ever: The Sequel
    This chart looks like it was drawn by a marketing person, not an economist. Supply and Demand, in economics, are not dimensionless quantities; but two dimensional graphs depicting what how much product suppliers are willing to supply at various prices, and how much product buyers are willign to purchase at various prices. The intersection of these two curves is, in theory, the equilibrium price.

    If you go to the World Gold Council web site, you see that the "increased demand", which is more correctly stated as "increased purchases" was due to FALLING PRICES.

    This just tells us that the demand curve has purchasers willing to buy more product at lower prices, which is no big news to anybody who took a semester of economics.

    It doesn't tell us much about the future equilibrium price at all.
    Nov 20 03:45 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Surprising Call for Return to the Gold Standard
    You don't improve your batting average by taking away the bat. You don't improve the way you manage the economy by abdicating. Slaving the dollar to a commodity, any commodity, is abdication. Calm, rational minds need to examine what went wrong, and enact rules to make sure it doesn't happen again. The gold standard has been tried and failed.

    In the FAA, they say "aviation safety policy is written in blood". The saying that will prevail in managing the economy is ultimately, "economic policy is written in bubbles, recessions, market failures, etc."

    That said, the Fed should certainly be restrained from allowing more bubbles to form. Why tie this to gold? Why not tie it to things that really matter, like stocks, houses, consumer staples? After all, if gold went to $100,000 oz, nobody would really be hurt, but if a loaf of bread costs $100 because of something the Fed does, you've got bigger problems on your hands.
    Nov 19 04:04 am |Rating: +2 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Eric Lemieux: Decline in Gold Price Goes Against Every Theory
    "In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is." --Yogi Berra.
    Nov 02 12:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • China's Greatest Trade Ever
    Previously, the Chinese wouldn't weaken the dollar because they would destroy their export market to the US. With the US consumer slowing down, it becomes more realistic for them to at least weaken the dollar a bit; but not to utterly destroy it.

    Neither does it make sense for them to corner the market in gold--certainly not to the extent where it would allow the US to wipe its balance sheet clean by dumping its own gold reserves and/or leasing proven reserves on Federal lands.

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again "A clean balance sheet in exchange for some pretty rocks". It isn't going to happen, not unless the Chinese get some hick with a C average running the country. I mean, a major power with an imbecile like that at the helm? It... will... never... umm... nevermind.
    Oct 31 01:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ignore the Hype - Gold as Currency is Dead
    Hahah, Seeking Alpha is pulling in commentary from non-goldbugs now. I wouldn't go so far as to totally dismiss commodity money. It has use as an insurance policy, and the old 5% rule probably isn't totally nuts; but it's nice to see some balance to all the gold buggery that goes on around here.
    Oct 29 01:39 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold Miners: Amazingly Cheap
    How much gold scrap and unwanted jewelry went into the melting pot during the last runup? Why mine it when you can refine it? Also, the price of gold proved to have a ceiling, since most gold purchases are discretionary. It was proved possible that the gold-oil ratio could get below 8, which I bet some thought woudn't happen. That kind of ratio is what kills new mines working sparse deposits, eh? I'm holding off on the metal still, nevermind risky mining plays. All the physical bullion that can be bought in convenient sizes is now sequestered in private vaults. If the dollar falls, people will have to cash in the Krugerrands just to keep the tank full. More ceilings on the gold price, a lot of tough times for these new miners for much, much longer IMHO.
    Oct 27 10:49 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Law of Supply & Demand Is Dead for Gold & Silver
    If anything, the US government should conspire to raise the price of gold to $40,000 so that we can get a clean balance sheet in exchange for "some pretty rocks".

    Of course, as Greenspan just told us, people don't always act in their own self-interest. I mean, look at me--here I am typing stuff on this stupid web site, and it does me no good at all.
    Oct 24 04:40 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
    RSTC -- don't underestimate these "pedestrian" techniques. Are you familiar with the shoeshine boy story? It comes straight from 1929--a suit observer got a stock tip from his shoeshine boy. At that point, it dawned on him that something was fundamentally wrong. He sold all his holdings just in time!

    If you had seen all the European tourists I saw over the summer, you might have drawn some conclusions about the Euro.

    Let's assume that all fiat currencies will, at some point in the future, become weak relative to hard assets. Let's assume that the currencies being hoarded by banks will eventually be released into the markets. Where will they be released first? How would that manifest itself in the market, and what would it look like to the suits and the shoeshine boys?
    Oct 22 16:17 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
    RSTC -- the market determines what is "correct", regardless of whether you are a gold bug or a gold bear. Everything trades as a proxy relative to everything else!

    It's not as simple as tallying up the world's supply of fiat money and dividing by the gold supply. If the market values fiat X equal to fiat Y, then the total supply of money is 2X; but if the market decides that fiat X is only worth half fiat Y, then suddenly the total money supply is 1.5X, and it really can happen very quickly.

    The markets are run by human beings. Human beings are not logical. If you could actually come up with a value for gold (or any other item) just by doing a simple division problem, the world would be nothing like it actually is.
    Oct 22 14:02 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
    The dollar isn't overvalued until you see ads on TV saying "Now a European vacation is more affordable than ever!". When the French newspapers are running articles about how the Americans are flooding the cafes, when gas is under $1/gal. That's when the dollar is overvalued. Wait for airline stocks to have a good quarter, at least. That's a dollar bubble.

    In the long run I think you're right about gold being much higher than now; but the short run could kill you.
    Oct 22 13:04 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Are Safe Haven Investments Really Immune From Current Crisis?
    Electric cars and some alternative fuels will reduce the need for platinum group metals. It could be years before auto sales pick back up too, so even if the new car needs a catalyst, there will be fewer of them on the road. People will keep their old beaters running longer in this economy. These materials are highly recylable too. If I had to buy any metal, I'd go for zinc over copper. Zinc-air batteries may be the wave of the future. The downside in zinc is that the US might decide to stop making pennies. Too much wierd crap like that happens in commodities for me to want to get involved with them.
    Oct 20 14:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
    "The reason gold is the ultimate store of value is because it can't be printed or destroyed. Yes, it's inflexible. That's the point. It constrains the natural tendency for humans to exhibit herd behaviour at the extremes of greed and panic"

    Rest assured, people retain their fear and greed under a gold standard.

    There were financial crises all throughout the 19th century, a period that represents the closest we've ever come to a gold standard.

    Really, our big mistake was to go off the wampum standard. The Native Americans had it right, but the foolish White Man was too blind to see it. Really. True wampum requires labor just as much as gold mining does, and can't be faked to the expert eye. In the end, both are equally fiat--wampum and gold are both currencies simply because the social contract says they are. Switching from dollars to gold as a reserve currency forces us to re-write all existing contracts at great cost, and provides no real benefit.
    Oct 12 13:46 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Fibonacci Unhinged
    Whenever I see something like this, it makes me glad I'm not a big technical guy. Fibonacci is a nice little spiral that you learn about in math class, and it's fun to make a graphical spiral when you are learning how to program a computer. Using it to make financial decisions? Laughable. The only simple mathematical thing I've ever seen show up on a chart is the damped wave I learned about in engineering school; but nobody ever talks about it, and it would only be useful if I were a day-trader. You know what I'm talking about? You look at the day chart for a stock responding to news, and it oscilates back and forth a few times just like a LC-circuit responding to a stepped input.

    The idea that you should try to apply any sort of mathematical analysis over such a long period of time, with such random inputs as foreign financial crises, terrorist attacks, etc. strikes me as dubious.
    Oct 12 01:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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