Alex Sebastian

http://figuringoutwallstreet.blogspot.com
Total Rating:
+2 / 0

27 Comments

    • Fri Nov 21st 22:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citigroup: The End Draws Near
      Not sure where this bout of insecurity came from. IMO Citi is too big to fail. I can't see them being bought by anyone else...

      I really can't see why the uptick rule can't be reinstated. That would really help the situation. Also, CDS swaps aren't trading nearly as high as other large financial institutions' were before they folded. As of yesterday, they were trading at 360 basis points, compared to over 3000 for the other doomed banks. I think Citi may be a buy here, but only with true MAD Money.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 21:41 PM | Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      The Shallowest Generation
      Excellent article. Sums up very nicely what I (a member of the generation following the Baby Boomers) have been telling people for ages. My generation is worse than the Baby Boomers are though. We are growing up with easy credit, and a lot of people are being given credit before they are responsible enough to handle it.

      A few points I would like to add:
      1) The war in Iraq is going to cost in excess of $2 trillion, not the $700B quoted in the article
      2) As far as banks making bad loans and granting mortgages they should not have, it was not as simple as poor decision making. What occurred was the original lender was able to securitize the loans and sell them to a third party, earning a commission on the loans, so the incentive structure of the industry changed dramatically.

      Before the era of securitization, a mortgage lender would have to do due diligence to ensure that people would be able to repay their loan. Once securitization began, they simply earned a commission on each mortgage, which they subsequently unloaded to Investment Bankers, who subsequently did a million optimization equations and got AAA ratings and sold them off. The bad banks were the banks which were caught with billions of these loans. Look at Goldman Sachs, they securitized billions of these loans and were a market maker fro CDOs MBSs etc, but foresaw the problems and got net short, evading the problems, while still making a killing during the securitization binge. A similar process occurred with consumer loans.

      A great video that is in the same vein as this article is "In Debt We Trust". Google it.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 21:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      11 Stocks Selling Below Cash
      I was going to say I wouldn't touch any of these except the Brazilian meat manufacturer, but after reading the comments, I don't think I would touch any of them. Mitsubishi UFJ is planning an enormous stock offering, one which will dilute the h*** out of the current shareholders. All these financials are still facing enormous challenges, I wouldn't touch them for a few quarters at least.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 9th 19:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50
      Hmm, well that's only 279 points off now... Cramer called bottom when July 15, when the Dow touched 10,500. Then he tried to limit his call to the financial stocks. Well XLF has recently dropped below its July 15th low. So he's wrong again. I would like it more if he said, "Look I called bottom here, I was wrong, here's where I see the next bottom". There's nothing wrong with being wrong, just admit to it...

      This time I believe him a little more though, we HAVE to be getting close. How long can the VIX stay above 50? I actually see the Dow above 9,000 this time next year. I mean the stockmarket is down 40% on a fears of a recession. Isn't the cost of a recession already priced in? 40% is A LOT. Are companies earnings going to be beat worse than that? I doubt it. That's global depression-like numbers. I am going long this tomorrow at close if we see another big dive..

      If MS makes it to the 14th, there is going to be one hell of a short squeeze (that's when the deal closes for their Japanese financing)...
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 20th 12:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      If You Think the Dow Did Well Today, You're Wrong
      Hmmm I wonder why that is. It couldn't be the case that the U.S. markets, the most developed and heavily traded on the planet, do not suffer the volatility of other markets...?
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 20:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: 9/11 Redux
      Anyone have any opinions on why Merrill is getting shitk*cked so badly? I mean I have puts so I'm happy, but I'm still a little confused why it has lost around $10 in 3 days...?
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 17:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman Brothers on Sale?
      If Lehman makes a deal like Merrill's (including financing considerations) on it's $40B of real estate assets - admittedly much higher quality than what Merrill sold - there will be no equity left. And I think to many the Lehman name has lost almost all of its value. You said yourself that they no longer have any goodwill, isn't that what the value of a "name" is?

      Also, there haven't been any rumours since July, when the SEC targeted rumour-mongering short sellers. Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citi and others were all very well behaved yesterday after hours when their spokesmen said that they all continue to trade with Lehman.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 17:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Expect the Real Rally by Mid-2009
      Just curious where your three year prediction of economic growth was derived from? Other than your conclusion on housing based on very simplistic analysis of housing data, I see nothing here that justifies economic predictions. I am open to being convinced on which way the economy is going to go, but I am not going to buy some numbers you clearly just picked out of thin air. Rationalize your conclusions and you might see more people listening to them. Complete an analysis like that and you will get laughed at when you draw a conclusion.

      Oh and I don't think forward earnings expectations are in any way reliable...
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 10:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Equities: In the Eye of the Storm
      I do think that the economic weakness which has emerged in the rest of the world may be beneficial for US equities simply because there are no "safe havens" left, so the US doesn't seem "as bad" in comparison
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 17th 12:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time to Pull the Trigger on Four Oil Service Stocks
      Thanks. That was much more pleasant than sifting through their annual/quarterly reports
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 17th 10:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time to Pull the Trigger on Four Oil Service Stocks
      My only concern with RIG is its low income tax expense. With as much as 80% of revenues locked in through 2010-2, I feel that leaves limited room for profit growth when the tax expense jumps as much as 20% over that span. Any thoughts?
      View article »
    • Sat Aug 16th 15:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wal-Mart Continues to Impress
      No surprise here. American consumers are flocking to Wal-Mart. Drive by any store, the parking lot is always full.
      View article »
    • Sat Aug 16th 15:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30
      I didn't take the time to read through all the comments on this page so forgive me if I am repeating some of the points already made by other readers.

      After reading this piece I honestly think Mr. Schwartz should be removed from the Seeking Alpha list of authors. This piece was so poorly researched and thought out that it is an insult to the entire site, and it's readers. I am only going to point out the most glaring flaw in Mr. Schwartz' argument.

      New oil is NOT plentiful. If you had any knowledge of the off-shore rig market, you would know that many of the rigs are being commissioned by big oil companies for EXPLORATION purposes, not production. This is a direct result of high oil prices (big oil is looking in places where it is very expensive to extract oil). Beyond this, while there have been some large new fields discovered, but they lie in harsh environments which result in very technically challenging drilling conditions. As a result oil is prohibitively expensive to extract from these areas. Many of these fields come online only with oil over $100 per barrel. With oil at $30 a barrel, there is almost no new oil coming into the market. With the megafields in significant decline, there will be a net loss in oil production, resulting in a higher oil price.

      No matter how you cut it, $30 oil is an impossibility which will never be realized. I feel sorry for the investors in your fund if that piece is what you guys consider "due diligence".

      My advice: stick to options trading. You seem to be excellent at that.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 12th 20:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Transocean Reports Solid Earnings, Time to Short?
      I really like this stock's long term prospects, as well as it's position in the deep water and harsh drilling environments. My only concern is their super low marginal tax rate the last few years. I guess they had losses extending back before this which they are now charging off, but once those tax credits end, their earnings are going to take a pretty serious hit...

      Does anyone have any ideas on this?
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 18:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Fright of the Chameleon: WSJ’s ‘Intelligent Investor’ and ETF Paranoia
      I really have to say that I am reading Benjamin Graham's Intelligent Investor with updated commentary by Jason Zweig and I am appalled by the quality of Mr. Zweig's analysis and commentary. In my opinion he totally misinterprets Mr. Benjamin and makes analogies and draws conclusions that are either totally incomplete or wrong outright. I have very little exposure to the rest of his work and his resume is impressive, but I have to say that he has gotten off to a VERY bad start with me and this article is not helping his cause.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»