otbricki

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85 Comments

    • Thu Nov 20th 21:23 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Consumer Shopping Backlash Could Reverse ‘Misery Effect’
      I don't know about fear factor. Actually I am kind of liking this. I sold all my equities last summer and now I'm buying up stuff at 50% off. Talk about 2 for 1 sales! The whole stock market is on holiday clearance.

      Whooppppeeee!
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 16th 20:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold 1, Oil Analysts 0
      Gold has nowhere to go but down from here. We are in a deflationary spiral for the next year because of massive deleveraging destroying money faster than the Fed can force-feed it into the economy.

      Longer term though the pendulum will swing the other way and gold become a good investment as oil skyrockets and the dollar tanks.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 16th 19:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Peak Oil, Cars, and Depressions
      Good article, no question that we are entering a period where US consumer consumption will not be the great engine of growth in the world that it has been. However there are mitigating factors, including growth overseas of large new middle class cohorts. And the housing situation is not as bad as you might think - US population is increasing and these people will want to live in houses.

      If the US was smart it will keep the dollar cheap (no apparent problem there) and become more focused on exports.

      View article »
    • Sat Nov 15th 16:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Iceland: What It's Like to Live in a World Without Money
      Crikey. I hope all you gold bugs realize that FDR confiscated gold once. It could happen again.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 21:48 PM | Rating: +1 -2
      Commented on:
      The Biggest Bubble of Them All
      Uranium yellowcake yummy - yours for $11/lb. Only slightly more dangerous than Duncan Hines Yellow Cake. Yellowcake is simply milled uranium ore. It's not enriched, or fissionable, and needs a LOT of high tech processing before it can be made into a weapon.

      As far as socialism not being able to compete, phagh. There are some socialistic economies out there that have measurably better quality of life for their citizens than the US. The US has the best per capita income, but the distribution of that money is so weighted to the top end that the US middle class is doing much worse than in many countries.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 20:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Surviving the Short-Term to Participate in the Long-Term
      Historically a Black Swan event is an occurrence or discovery that breaks a long held belief system based on a long history of observations that leads to a set assumptions of fact based on inductive logic. It isn't based on the statistically improbably result, but rather a binary event that totally trashes a belief or system of beliefs. One classical example of a Black Swan event was the discovery of microorganisms. Another was the discovery of black swans in Australia forever altering the belief that all swans are white.

      The current stock market behavior is not a Black Swan event except in the vernacular of the hyperbolic prose that so often is the content of financial blogs these days.

      As far as stock markets go, it is quite apparent we are in a asset deflation period. It is also quite apparent that this will not going to continue for a long period of time given the extraordinary monetary supply inflation that is going on right now. As such it is absolutely the worst advise imaginable to recommend people should be totally in cash. That boat has sailed. The time now is to start buying harder assets. Yes, you might have to wait a while. But maybe not. The other side of this may be merely six months away.
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    • Sun Oct 26th 21:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's
      Riiggghhhht. Plenty of time also to miss the boat if things start turning around in the next few weeks. When fear turns to greed the upside will be like a rubber band snapping back. The prudent investor would be wise to start allocating money to equities.
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 25th 21:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Short Selling Levels Down. Is This a Surprise?
      Naked short selling is destructive since it places no limit to the number of stocks that can be sold. There is no countervailing long side structure to balance this. It is a travesty that this was not banned. Total incompetence.

      Three mode control algorithms are nice if you have a linear system or are operating over a limited range that approximates linearity, and you have a stable operating point. None of these criteria are met by the current equities market.

      As far as fractional reserve banking, NOBODY is forcing anyone to use banks that use this business model. You are perfectly free to bury your money in a cigar box in the back yard if you want. Otherwise, don't tell me how to use my money.

      If fractional reserve banking did not exist some other mechanism would have to be created to supply to economy with credit and money. The mechanics of this may or may not be better than the current system, hard to say which because nobody has tried it.

      Margin availability is stock price neutral because borrowed funds can fund both upside and downside bets. Look at the hedgies for a perfect example of this.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 24th 20:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Recession Is Already Priced Into Stocks
      Past p/e multiples do not apply? What kind of nonsense is that? The fundamental maths of finance are still operative. A P/E of 8 = 12% ROI. With fixed income funds in low single digits sooner of later the pressure to get better returns will overwhelm and equities will explode.
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 18th 11:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Charts of the Day: Gold, and Baltic Dry Index
      Gold is just another commodity that will continue to plunge in value just like all the other commodities as deleveraging by the banks destroys trillions of dollars of money supply.

      The gold bugs just do not seem to grasp that this is a deflationary period, not inflationary.

      Throughout history gold has maintained a more or less stable purchasing power; that is its value against other commodities remains more or less fixed. With all other commodities plunging vs. the dollar, what makes anyone think gold will go up? The gold bugs are ignoring fundamentals in favor of wacko conspiracy theories.

      Once the deleveraging is done the time to buy commodities will come back, along with significant inflation. We aren't there yet.

      For those who MUST own physical gold, YOU CAN TAKE DELIVERY OF A FUTURES CONTRACT. Gold coin shortages are due to production capacity issues, not a shortage of actual gold.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 15th 20:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      High U.S. Corporate Taxes Are a Myth
      The fact that 45% percent of the population does not pay income taxes should be a big fat warning that the society we live in is seriously broken. The distribution of wealth in 21st century America is going to lead to huge social unrest and eventual socialization of more and more of the economy.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 15th 19:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold ETFs: What Went Wrong With Conventional Wisdom?
      So why is the biggest economy in the world going through a massive deleveraging inflationary? 3.1 Trillion in equity value lost in the past 10 days?

      Anyone buying commodities right now deserves to get burned. Eventually I hope it will turn around, but now is not the time.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 13th 19:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Julian Robertson: Some Buying, but Bearish on the Economy
      RAT, not RABBIT
      View article »
    • Sun Oct 12th 10:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Does Deflation Actually Happen?
      eternitus is right. The scenarios you describe are not complete; they do not account for the massive reduction in leverage that is in progress at the moment.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 10th 22:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Roger Wiegand: 'Severe Bull Market' Ahead for Gold
      There is no reason to buy gold. Other materials with intrinsic utility (platinum, iridium, rare earths) make more sense. IF you think western civilization will collapse to the point where these assets will become useless, then buy ammo and long lived food products. In famines and chaos nobody is going to have any use for gold.
      View article »
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