Caltorguy

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+1 / -1

38 Comments

    • Tue Nov 18th 15:48 PM | Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      Reading Apple: iPhone Sales Slightly Off, MacBook OK
      AAPL is a play on the broader economy. Sure a lot of people want an iPhone but will they sign an (expensive) multi-year talk and data plan right now that the iPhone requires when they aren't sure about their job / home etc? Apple's has positioned itself a premium product in the categories it operates in and is able to command prices acccordingly but this could work against it if this recession is long and severe - I mean how many people NEED a high-end smart phone or brand new $1500 laptop? "Need" trumps "want" pretty quickly if you don't know where your next paycheque is coming from, or whether you'll have you house in 3 months (or a FICO score above 400...). This is why the whole consumer tech mkt is dead right now and may continue to be for a long time - and if AAPL goes to $50, even doubling it will only take it back to half what it was 6 months ago. Maybe, if they really have all this cash, they should pay a dividend....
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    • Thu Nov 13th 11:58 AM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Attention Gold Bugs: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
      Isn't one way to "pay" off debt to inflate your way out of it? In contrast, if the Fed allows deflation to happen, won't the already huge US debt become crippling, well north of the 100% of GDP benchmark where things start to get pretty tough, and lenders start to worry? Same for corporate debt. Maybe what we should be looking at is not the 1930s but 1923...in Germany when that country essentially eliminated its war debt through inflation in the billions of %. The only people that made it through that period were those that held gold or foreign currency (which wasn't that easy to get). As for the US in 2009, trillion dollar deficits, or 7-8% of GDP don't lend themselves well to deflation.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 00:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ten Reasons Why Gold Isn't Above $1,000
      I'd be willing to be some money that in two years gold will be over $1000, oil will be $200 and the Cdn dollar will be at $1.10 US.
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    • Thu Oct 23rd 16:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's 'Real' Earnings: Up Almost 125%
      Even if all of this is true, and it probably is, AAPL could still be trading at $70 in a week. The risk is all systemic here - Apple could have sold 20 million iPhones and it wouldn't have made a difference...
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    • Mon Oct 20th 12:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?
      The person above who mentioned interest rates is dead on. Who the heck would buy stocks in 1982 when a bank GIC paid 15%? and government bonds well over 10% - if that was the risk free rate, of course multiples were A LOT lower than now. The issue is that now we have GICs and govt bonds yielding 2%, a real return of zero. Are people really saying that the best we'll do over the next 7 to 10 years is to preserve existing capital? If that's the case there really are going to be a lot of retirees eating cat food, or maybe nothing at all - since most pension plans govt and otherwise will be insolvent too.
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    • Mon Oct 6th 17:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Canadian Oil Sands Looks Attractive Despite Near Term Risk
      Their costs are coming down - nat gas is a main input and its price has dropped from $14 to $7. AB is studying building a nuke reactor to fuel the oil sands. Let's hope they do!
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    • Fri Oct 3rd 16:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Thinking About the Next Six Months
      Well this is a learning experience....it IS amazing what happens to equities when both earnings estimates and multiples collapse....bubble after bubble deflates. Assets prices between 1929 and 33 dropped 90% and in many places you could buy a nice home for $1,000 by the mid 1930s...let's pray the world's central banks have something up their sleeves!
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    • Fri Sep 26th 20:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Research in Motion Knocked Down, Not Out
      I agree - I think RIMM and AAPL will end up in a sort of duopoly for high end data phones. The iPhone is great but they'll need to figure out some sort of data compression technology to get around the wireless capacity issues. Companies pay for wireless data so I have a tough time believing that they'll provide a multimedia device "iTunes enabled" for staff when they really just want them to be able to check email on the road.
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    • Fri Sep 26th 11:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Research in Motion Takes Hit from Component Costs and Dollar, Hints at New Product
      Apparently the new Bold works seamlessly with iTunes so I'm not sure what the music issue is - it will also do great photos and video (can record video too). I still think that the data compression technology is BB's ace in the whole, and the fact that it has a keyboard that for the primary business purpose - email - makes like infinitely easier. The iPhone has apparently, after only 3 months, tapped out all of AT&T's 3G capacity - this would not be the case with the Bold. I also wonder if big business is going to be happy about providing staff with what even the AAPL fanboys acknowledge is primarily a multimedia device with a a phone attached. Companies pay for data too.
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    • Wed Sep 17th 15:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Morgan Stanley in Distress
      RBC has ruled out US acquisitions for the time being. I never thought I would see the day though when a Cdn bank had a market cap more than GS and MS combined. Toronto is North America's new financial heavy weight!
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    • Mon Sep 15th 00:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When Can We Start Breathing Again?
      My poor portfolio...Monday is going to hurt!
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    • Fri Sep 12th 16:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Avoiding Doomed Sectors, Redux
      I agree that the economics of newspapers aren't great right now but I bristle when someone refers to them as "obsolete". Try as it might, the internet cannot replace old-fashioned news gathering because it is merely distribution medium (heaven help us when blogs replace actual investigative journalism...). Moreover no electornic screen, laptop or iPhone will ever duplicate the ease and comfort of use of newsprint. And a newspaper costs $2. I can't quite figure figure what an iPhone would cost me but I do know that Apple and the wireless companies should get together and start a financing division. Glad to see Cdn energy cos./trusts and railways on your "good" list though - seems like the "old" economy is hot indeed - can newspapers be far behind? ;-)
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    • Tue Sep 9th 16:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Six Reasons Why Apple's Still a Buy
      AAPL is the victim of the overall market - no one is looking at fundamentals right now, it's just sell sell sell. I do think the US market will lead the global recovery in stock prices and AAPL is about as good a name as any to buy with true growth potential - the question is when -overall negative market sentiment probably could drag down the stock another 20%. Right now, my best performing stock is a railway, which is about as far away from an iPhone as you can get!
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    • Tue Sep 9th 16:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Canada's Snap Election Could Affect ETF
      Canada has almost never had coalition governments - our "first past the post" electoral system (like England's) is designed to produce majority governments that control parliament and usually does. You only need to have a plurality of voters in a majority of ridings (electoral districts) to win, which with 5 parties can be as little as 30% (but is usually 40% or so). Harper got 36% last time around - he is hoping to get 40% this time which would give him his majority. In Canada it is hard to imagine a centre-right government getting 50% or more.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 11:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Strong Fundamentals and Oil Ties Make Transocean a Great Long-Term Buy
      Stock...
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