dancingdiva

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    • Sat Sep 6th 06:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Freddie/Fannie Plans In Motion; Why Are They Being Underplayed?
      Excellent article. Unfortunately it poses more questions than it answers. That's not a criticism, Mr. Kedrosky. It's far too soon to tell what all the ramifications of a bail out will mean to the US economy. While the knee jerk reaction was an after market stock rally, I can't buy into it.

      Opening this Pandora's box will have serious implications for years to come. Rather than comforting me, it heightens my concerns regarding the future of the US economy.
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    • Sun Aug 10th 01:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Outlook for the Indian Economy
      Please note the Asian currency crisis was late in 1997 so I assumed, perhaps incorrectly, that it was not totally responsible for the sharp drop in 1997 GDP.
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    • Sun Aug 10th 01:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Outlook for the Indian Economy
      Thank you for your informative article but I have some questions.

      Inflation was quite high in India for much of 1994 and all of 1995. As a result the Indian govt boosted nominal interest rates to a high level and kept them there through much of 1996. I note on your chart 1997 GDP growth rate fell quite sharply relative to the previous few years and I assume it was due to the higher interest rates and its lagging impact.

      History looks like it is repeating itself. What makes you think the high level of growth in 2009 and 2010 can occur under since interest rates are likely to remain at a high level to curb inflation? Or was it something other than the high interest rates that had an impact on the 1997 economy?
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    • Wed Aug 6th 20:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Prisma Goes Contrarian on Potash Industry
      If things are so good, why are fertilizer companies pushing for US farmers to renew their spring contracts now?

      Surely they must see the handwriting on the wall.

      And surely I need not remind bulls that nothing increases supplies over the long haul like massive profits. That's basic economics. Don't look out three months; look out three years. The market is already in the process of pricing that in. We've seen the highs. The only questions are how much of an upward correction occurs and how much sideways trading occurs before it's obvious to everyone this is over.

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    • Sun Aug 3rd 19:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P 500's Best and Worst Net Income Change
      Tyco should not be on the list imo. The company split into three parts last year and the statistics are screwed up.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 3rd 08:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Manitowoc Offers Investors Growth at a Discount
      And I am saying growth is a hindsight phenomena. Take a look at past cyclical downturns and how far earnings could fall and then tell me debt doesn't matter. Recent world statistics have been showing a major slowdown in most regions of the world, and since the inflation and high interest rates felt by most economies are a relatively recent phenomena, the statistics have yet to catch up to how slow the economies may get.

      Putting money into this sector, whether it's Manitowoc, Terex, Caterpillar, etc may be the smartest move in the world if economic conditions don't deteriorate further, but everything I see tells me caution is warranted. This reminds me of the debate on how cheap housing stocks looked after they began their descent, when prices peaked a full year ahead of revenues.

      And taking on a high debt load at what may be the top of the cycle leaves them in a more precarious position and unable to take advantage of the bargains which may emerge.

      Whether prices move even lower and all negative news is priced in is debatable; but I've caught a "falling knife" in the past only to see earnings deteriorate and prices move even lower. I don't think there is anyone who hasn't fallen victim to that phenomena at least once. So perhaps I'm overly cautious.
















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    • Sat Aug 2nd 16:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      All About Investing in Agricultural Land
      You are a few years too late (or too early) with this article. Over the next year or two ag commodities, barring a major weather problem, will fall in price, as will land values. Better farming practices and technological advances through seed technology should boost yields and bring down prices, especially for the grains. That, combined with a slowdown in the world economy from high interest rates, tightening credit and recent inflationary forces will take their toll.
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    • Fri Aug 1st 04:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Manitowoc Offers Investors Growth at a Discount
      Frugal2000 - The biggest drawback to Manitowoc right now is what happens if there is a significant global slowdown. Assuming no asset sales, like their Marine division, they will be taking on debt equal to two-thirds of their pre-Enodis market cap. In this environment that's a risky proposition.

      I've always liked Manitowoc; it's a great company. In fact I owned shares in the company until May, when my concerns over the global economy combined with the Enodis debt prompted me to sell. Right now I prefer Terex, although it too could be dead money in a global slowdown. Both stocks are cheap, but Tex has the added advantage of smaller debt and a huge buyback.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 03:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Manitowoc Offers Investors Growth at a Discount
      Several faults with your argument.
      1. If it was just Enodis, why did both MTW and Tex fall by the same amount over the past two months? My bet it was fear of a global slowdown combined with overall market weakness.
      2. Your comparisons to Terex is very faulty. While I agree MTW is the king of cranes, Tex crane sales and earnings over the past two quarters rose more than Mtw's on a percentage basis. Additionally, Tex has an aftermarket service, but doesn't highlight it the way MTW mgmt does theirs. It's obvious by the numbers Tex hasn't suffered in comparison since their margins are growing faster.
      3. You say MTW has a greater global exposure, but in 2007 Tex non-US sales were 70% vs Mtw's near 50% (their 2007 report said 53% for "the America's").
      4. You neglect to mention Terex' booming mining business that has so far more than made up for the small decline in their AWP business.

      I realize your aim was to promote Manitowoc. Yet, your homework and research against what you consider their main competitor was extremely poor. Additionally, your primary thesis that MTW is just being punished over Enodis is outright incorrect since both companies fell by almost the exact same % prior to Tex mgmt's buyback announcement.

      Over the past week, both in this weeks Barron's and today on CNBC two different people commented Terex didn't get any respect. It's shoddy research like this that contributes to that opinion.
      View article »
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