Nathan Weiss

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Natural Gas Demand Continues to Decline

Natural gas use for vehicls is am interestin growth area, but it only accounted for .114% of natural gas demand in 2007, as can be seen in the EIA end use tables:

tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav...

Most E&Ps really suffer awful cash flows... Look at SandRidge Energy, spending 1.1x 2009 revenues on CapEx to keep production flat from Q4 run rates) in 2009. CHK is in the same boat (to keep the analogy going. It is going to be VERY intersting to see how natural gas E&Ps attempt to fund 2009 CapEx.
Nov 30 14:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Natural Gas Demand Continues to Decline

Our demand estimate is -.36%, or about a third of a percent currently (not -36%!). Based on recent trends, an estimate of -2% is much more likely. We will provide a full update in mid-December when winter heating demand becomes apparent.
Nov 28 07:56 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Natural Gas Demand Continues to Decline

Our demand estimate was -.36%, about a third of a percent, in 2009.
Nov 28 07:54 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Natural Gas: Clean Fuel with a Dirty Little Secret

fran - the utilities HAVE maxed on on natural gas (this is part of my full 29 pg report on natural gas). Petroleu Liquids use for electricity is down 50% from 2005 and petroleum coke has falle. The other sources, Nuclear, Hydro, Renewables and coal basically have very little MARGINAL cost to run - you want to run them flat out as much as you can with current capacity. There really is no electricity generation that can shut off and be replaced by natural gas.

That said, by 2012 I expect natural gas demand for electricity generation to be 16.25% above todays levels, but this only adds 1.1 BCF/d in gas demand.

To put it another way, we generated 21.47% of our electricity from natural gas in 2007 and this used only 6.87 BCF a day. The current surplus of natural gas supply is nearly 4 BCF/d and growing!

Aug 14 18:17 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Natural Gas: Clean Fuel with a Dirty Little Secret

This is my correct user info (not User 243242)!

Aug 14 12:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Natural Gas: Clean Fuel with a Dirty Little Secret

The 'Dirty Secret' is that energy insiders know that we are massively oversupplied, but the year over year storage numbers, the primary driver of natural gas prices (a -.78 corr over the past 2 years), did not begin to show the problem until now. Take a look at the storage forecasts we calculated on May 1 on the UNG sell idea in the sample report section of the Unit Economics site.

I believe natural gas prices wll hit $7.60 in coming weeks and average $6.00 in 2009.
Aug 14 12:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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