James Biringer

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/verizon401k/

18 Comments

    • ON: Sun Apr 27th 09:56 AM
      Commented on:
      There Is Plenty to Fear in This Market
      I'm with Bill here. One more good hard pull and then I'll get real interested in equities. In the meantime, a good allocation to cash and bonds ain't a bad place to be. This isn't over, in my opinion.

      In answer to this post,

      Makes sense. But how would you determine when the credit contraction is over, other than waiting 6 months or so and looking at the historical numbers, and be able to say, "See? It ended THERE!"

      David, here's a link I happened upon from another blogger on seeking apha.

      markit.com

      If you browse the site a litttle you'll find some of these bond funds that are selling for 60 cents on the dollar in black and white. Frankly, I was looking for the same thing, namely a site where I could actually see some of these selling for fire sale prices.

      There's probably a few more of these out there, but this is the first one I found so far. I stop in every couple weeks and may download some of the prices into a spreadsheet to keep track of the pricing looking for a bottom or some positivity.

      From this laymen's perspective, I would think that when most of these bonds are selling for better than 90 cents on the dollar we should be out of the woods so to speak, in the credit markets.

      View article »
    • ON: Sun Apr 6th 06:50 AM
      Commented on:
      Global P/E Ratios: How the U.S. Stacks Up
      Good job Bespoke, as usual. Also, George, excellent comment. I wondered the same thing. As far as discrepancies between different data sources, if they're pretty close, the discrepancy would be irrelevant, imho.

      Jimmy
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Mar 4th 21:20 PM
      Commented on:
      Berkshire Hathaway Appears Undervalued
      Excellent article. I like that you went at that a couple different directions. Good job.

      <<<<"... Party's over." >>>>
      UPOD

      View article »
    • ON: Tue Feb 26th 20:20 PM
      Commented on:
      The Anatomy of a Bear Market
      Good article, Eben. Here's a blurb I sent out kinda along the same thoughts you had. I'm no expert or guru, but I think I'm smart enough to think for myself and make my own decisions.


      >>>>
      Dear Investors,

      Maybe it's me, but I got a nagging thought
      rolling around in my head the last few months.
      And I heard a quick mention of a similar thought
      on Fast Money tonight.

      Let me see if I got this right. I'll try my best to put
      my thoughts into some type of cohesive essay.


      ----------------------...


      The investment banks are marking down drastically
      their assets in the CDO and CMO funds they put together.
      Investors bought into these vehicles through bonds and
      bond funds made up of all these SIV's.

      Alright, let's see now. I got a slice of a bond fund made
      up of a mix of prime, alt a, and subprime mortgages.
      There's all kinds of hullabaloo going around, and I have
      to mark to market my bond fund CMO's.

      Wait a minute. There's no market for my bond fund of CMO's
      because of a high level of fear by investors. Shoot. I have to
      market to a market that barely exists at this point. Alright.
      I mark to market my fund of CMO's and find I'm 70% down
      right now. This asset, according to the market is worth 70%
      less than what it was worth last year, or whenever.

      But...is it really worth 70% less?? I would argue no. Because,
      if I ride this out, that same market, imho, will give me true value
      in a year or two. And not for nuthin', true value, not market value,
      is the real worth of the asset I'm holding right now.

      For instance, if I put a real negative number on my CMO, I'd have
      to say that 20% of my mortgages in the CMO are non performing.
      But the market is marking down my bond fund of CMO's by 70%.
      And another thing, those NPA's are still worth something. This is
      real estate. Okay, let's say it's devalued by, I don't know, 20%
      for pete's sake. Well 20% ain't 70%. That's a lot different.

      I know, to unscramble the NPA's out of the bond fund of CMO's is
      gonna bear some cost for admin, foreclosure, and general nuisance
      fees.

      But 70%??

      I'm not seeing it.


      ----------------------...


      I guess what I'm saying is some of this is getting overblown
      in my book. Could be wrong. But I think, that at the margin,
      there's definately two sides to this plug nickel. If that makes
      any sense.



      Thank You,
      James Biringer
      Co - Moderator - Intelligent Investors Group
      finance.groups.yahoo.c.../
      Owner - Verizon401k Newsgroup
      finance.groups.yahoo.c.../

      The opinions expressed in this email are
      those of James Biringer. They are not
      intended to be recommendations of any
      security, only his opinion. As always,
      investors should do their own
      due diligence and research, and invest with
      caution. James Biringer reserves the
      right to change orders at the last minute,
      cancel the order entirely, and add orders
      not advanced to the group, due to time
      constraints and changing market conditions.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Feb 4th 19:27 PM
      Commented on:
      China's Inflation Hits American Price Tags
      Met up with a guy out of Singapore visiting a company. He echoed your theisis. You're right on the money. The inflation payoff, in foreign labor is almost played. Certainly in China, it's played. Expect a revert to the norm as far as manufactured goods is concerned.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Feb 4th 19:02 PM
      Commented on:
      Full Steam Ahead For iShares REITs ETF
      Just reset my 401k contributions to equities, agg equities, and my reit.
      If it ain't time, then it's damn near it. And really, that's good enough.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Jan 24th 05:00 AM
      Commented on:
      Why Tuesday's Surprise Rate Cut Won't Cut It
      I’ve been telling the Fed to cut rates since last summer so if you’re one of my 4 long-term readers, this is not new to you.

      Thanks a lot, I got three. :)
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Dec 20th 15:42 PM
      Commented on:
      Rolling the Dice on Downtrodden Homebuilder Hovnanian
      Stephen,

      I'm leaning the same way. I picked a long call on FMD for Jan. 2009. I like the limited down side of this spec play. And if it
      things do pan out, the upside could off the chart.

      I'm also looking at HOV for a long option play, most likely the Jan 2010 call option. As far out as I can go.

      I'm also looking at MER for a long call option. I'm liking MER much
      better with John Thaine at the helm. I'll probably wait on this a
      little while longer.

      I think, if you're gonna speculate on some of these downtrodden
      tickers, an option is the way to play it. At least your downside
      is finite.

      James Biringer
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Nov 21st 16:25 PM
      Commented on:
      Why is GM's Wagoner Back on the Hot Seat?
      I wouldn't short GM until you test drive a G6. Then decide
      on this car companie's long term prospects. Just bought one for
      the wife. What a beautiful car. I'll be doubling up on my GM position
      when I see a soft bottom.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Nov 1st 21:37 PM
      Commented on:
      Portfolio Recovery Associates: The Shorts Will Be Proven Wrong
      Not a bad day for PRAA. Haven't pulled the trigger yet, but it looks interesting.

      Last Trade: 44.18
      Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
      Change: 0.93 (2.06%)

      Outperformed the market today.
      If this is finding a bottom somewhere here, then I may pull the trigger.

      James Biringer
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Oct 17th 19:44 PM
      Commented on:
      Leveraged ETFs Well Worth the Risk
      Jason,

      I like your thinking. That's not a bad way to go, especially if you
      lighten up a little and book some profits in periods like we're in now,
      and buy a little during negative volatility.

      Good Job,
      Jimmy
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Oct 17th 19:44 PM
      Commented on:
      Leveraged ETFs Well Worth the Risk
      Jason,

      I like your thinking. That's not a bad way to go, especially if you
      lighten up a little and book some profits in periods like we're in now,
      and buy a little during negative volatility.

      Good Job,
      Jimmy
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Aug 8th 20:36 PM
      Commented on:
      Headed For a Normal 20-30% Correction
      Roger,

      Good comments, pays to be a little cautious right now, regardless of
      timelines. Thank God somebody else sees risk right now, I thought
      I was the only one there for awhile.

      James Biringer
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jun 27th 14:52 PM
      Commented on:
      Telecom Meets Web 2.0 - Who Wins?
      Simply put, VOIP is only as good as the network it travels over. Seidenburg understands this, which would be why they're in the process of installing the best network this country has ever seen. Hardwired or otherwise. I'm talking, of course, about Fios, their FTTP network. Expensive? Yes. King of the hill in
      the long run? No doubt.

      Disclosure: author is long VZ via their 401k company match.

      James Biringer
      Verizon FTTP fiber splicer
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Mar 12th 17:07 PM
      Commented on:
      How Verizon's FiOS Will Change the Face of the Telecom Industry
      Bill,

      You're right on the money. This network is gonna boggle mind of the average American in the years to come. The IT savvy of the population(read "young people"), will celebrate this. I could go into many different points from your article, which I agree with, but will touch on one point you may have left out.

      Being, that there is a demux card at the side of the house, thus forming a "moat" between the WAN or network, and the house wiring, how long is it gonna be till Verizon rolls out a direct connect option between their DVR and the homeowner's PC? That would circumvent Apple's big idea of RF'ing data
      between these two points.

      If I were competing with Verizon, I would be worried now, and downright scared in 3 years or so.

      James Biringer
      Verizon Fiber Splicer presently doing the buildout
      Owner - Yahoo! newsgroup - "Verizon 401k"
      View article »
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