Will Rahal

http://www.wrahal.blogspot.com
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114 Comments

    • Fri Jul 4th 10:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Was Left Out of the Jobs Report
      Wages and wealth are dropping rapidly.
      These are the driving force behind the US economy.
      As earnings decrease, the only catalyst for the stock market improvement, is a drop in commodity prices.
      After a rally, the strong commodity-related sectors will also contribute to further stock market declines.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 17:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Markets Still Sliding Away
      After a bounce, the markets will continue to drop.
      The recent action in the stock market confirms that the economic slowdown is indeed a recession.
      The tax rebates have been spent in Non-Durable vs Durable Goods, exacerbating economic malaise.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 17:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Current Market: Investors Lack Fear
      Investors should be fearful.
      The recent action of the markets with the DJIA and breadth making new low, confirm the weak economic data I have been posting for over a year. Even after the tax rebate , consumption is concentrating in essential items as Food & Energy vs Discretionary items.
      The ratio of these two series continue to rise indicating more economic weakness.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 17:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Worst Dow June Since Depression
      We are in the greatest mess since the depression.
      The markets just confirmed this.
      Even after the tax rebates the ratio of consumption in ND-Goods to Durable Goods has risen, indicating that there is less ability to buy discretionary items. that are more stimulative for the economy.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 17:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Breadth Back to Lows
      The Advancing minus Declining Volume line has also broken to new lows.
      This does not bode well for the stock market, and confirms that my economic indicators pointing to a recession are valid.
      Despite the tax rebate the ratio of ND/Durable Goods consumption keeps rising, allowing for less discretionary spending needed to stimulate the economy

      See

      wrahal.blogspot.com/20...
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 17:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will the Nasdaq Take a Mean Bounce?
      The NASDAQ will take a bounce but tha tis it: just a bounce.

      On a relative basis business is in better shape than the consumer as evinced by a ratio I keep track of Business Investment expressesd as percentage of Durable Goods Orders.
      This ratio keeps climbing but it is close to a relative peak suggesting that business will follow the consumer into recession.
      The action in the stock market confirms this.

      See
      wrahal.blogspot.com/20...

      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 16:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Record Oil Surge Leans on Stocks and Dollar
      Oil prices are exacerbating our economic woes.
      I still expect the dollar to firm up as we continue to be in a weak economic environment.
      Despite the tax rebates the ration od ND to Durable Goods consumption keeps rising, I have been claiming for a year that this would lead to recession. The Stock Market confirmed it this week.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 16:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Risky Waters, But Opportune Waves
      The Market has Spoken.
      I have claiming for a year that the rise in Food & Energy would lead to an economic mess for a leveraged society.
      This week the stock market confirm end it.
      The ratio of ND Goods/Durable Goods consumption keeps rising despite the tax rebate.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 16:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time To Start Buying Some Dogs?
      If you are buying, it 'd better be for a trade only. The market has confirmed the economic reality in which we have been in.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 21st 10:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Euro at Highest in More Than a Week
      During recession the trade deficit in the US actually improves, as the consumer is not able to import as much.

      There is no reason to believe that this time will be different.

      In the US, Consumption is very weak. The business sector is holding up(noticed the NASDQ out performance?).
      Business is starting to show signs of deterioration and it will follow consumption into recession.
      The world economies will deteriorate also.
      The US Dollar will improve under this scenario
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 21st 09:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financial Fears Sweeping the Globe
      In the US most analysts are claiming that "the worse is over" Investors who believed that we are bouncing at the bottom of the economic cycle , pushed the market higher.
      There is little doubt about the consumer slowing.
      The business sector (reflected by the NASDQ out performance) is still holding up.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 21st 09:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The (Non) Crash of 2008
      Markets participants who believed that we are bouncing at the bottom of the economic cycle , pushed the market higher.
      It is becoming clear that the consumer is in trouble.
      The business sector (reflected by the NASDQ out performance) is still holding up.
      I have posted about business following consumption into a recession.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 15th 10:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Unemployment Rates: Understanding the Big Picture
      There will always be an imperfect measurement. But I agree that the key is understanding the measurements.
      The increase in the unemployment rate is closely related to a drop in income(of course) and this is one of the driving forces behind an economic slowdown.
      Both the 6 and 12-month percent change in real wages have dropped to levels associated with recessions.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 15th 10:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much Inflation Will We Have to Endure?
      The slowdown in the economy will moderate inflation.
      The difference between the annualized rate (AR) 6-month in the CPI and the AR 18-month CPI is rolling over. This number always ends up in negative territory during economic weakness.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 15th 10:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Economic Report Summary: Strong Retail Sales, Surge in Consumer Prices
      If you adjust Retail Sales by inflation, then the yr/yr % change is at a low equivalent to the last recession.
      View article »
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