Will Rahal

http://www.wrahal.blogspot.com
Total Rating:
0 / 0

114 Comments

    • Sat Jun 14th 12:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Timing the Rise of the Phoenix (and Markets)
      It is too early to buy stocks.
      Most analysts expect no recession and very few expect a deep one.
      I think this recession will be long and harsh.
      Despite the jump in retail sales (due to the tax rebate), this indicator is deep into recession territory.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 14th 12:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recession to Inflation: Transitions Benefit the Dollar
      I think the dollar should be bought.
      Despite the jump in retail sales, the economic indicator point to a recession.
      I expect inflation as measured by the CPI to start heading lower.
      The difference in the 6-month vs 18-month annualized rate always dips into negative territory as the economy softens.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 14th 11:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      At the Fed, Precedent Takes a Holiday
      I agree that the Fed will not raise rates.
      Despite the temporary boost in retail sales due to the tax rebate, the economy remains in recession.
      The difference in the 6-month vs 18-month annualized rate in the CPI should drop below zero. This should give the Fed some breathing room.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 14th 11:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Today Is Different From the Inflationary 1970s
      Last week's economic reports were so poor(despite the temporary boost in retail sales due to the tax rebate) that the only good thing I posted was a chart showing how the difference in the 6-month vs 18- month annualized rate in the CPI should start approaching negative territory. This should give the Fed some breathing room.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 14th 09:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Week in Review: Dollar's Biggest Advance Vs. Euro in 3 Years
      I believe the US Dollar is to be bought despite
      the week economic numbers reported recently.

      Nevertheless, the boost in retail sales caused by the rebate, is insignificant.
      View article »
    • Sat May 31st 15:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Q1 GDP Improved: Don't Get Too Excited
      I would not be surprised to see the deflator adjusted higher.

      Consumption (70% of the economy) and Housing(5%)
      are clearly in recession.
      View article »
    • Sat May 31st 14:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Compared with Canada, U.S. Economy Looks OK
      If our GDP (optimistic)deflator were to be revised by 1% we would be in the negative side also.
      I've charted Real PCE indicating a consumer-recession.
      The 6-month % change has dropped to levels only seen during recessions.The report on Business Investment is more benign, but I believethat the consumer sector will lead the business sector down.
      View article »
    • Wed May 28th 09:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodity Bubbles and Valuation: Imperfect Together
      Run ups in commodities is not something new.
      As a part of a complicated puzzle, you have to determine where it fits into your investment pieces..
      Sometimes the spike in commodity prices denote the peak of economic activity.
      I have posted on Crude Materials a PPI component.
      Ratios and acceleration are at extremes, suggesting a correction in commodities is in the works.
      View article »
    • Sun May 18th 09:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Dollar Bulls Get Nervous Again?
      The Dollar will be under attack, but will probably do surprisingly well
      since its decline already accounts for the weakness in the US economic structure.
      The NBER looks at Retail Sales, Employment, Income and Industrial Production. I posted charts on these series and they are clearly not looking too healthy.
      View article »
    • Sat May 17th 23:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dollar Falls on Lowest Consumer Sentiment in 28 Years
      "Is how folks feel about the economy that matters", president Bush said. Well they ain't feeling too good.

      I charted the four yardsticks used by the NBER to asses economic pain and they are not looking good either.
      View article »
    • Sat May 10th 15:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where's the Bursting Commodities Bubble?
      Commodities will correct.
      I have shown that economic indicators tend to improve at the wrong time, giving investors a sense of false security.
      This improvement tend to coincide with peak economic activity.

      As the economy sours, commodities will weaken.
      View article »
    • Sat May 3rd 13:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fed Pumps More Money Into the Economy
      Thanks Gordon.
      Heirlooms eh? What is next?
      View article »
    • Sat May 3rd 11:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fed Pumps More Money Into the Economy
      It is not surprising that the FED continues pumping money into the financial system.
      I have shown that the Industrial Production Index corresponding to Business Equipment relative to Consumer Goods is about to turn lower slowing the economy further and creating even more loan problems for the banking system.
      See
      wrahal.blogspot.com/20...

      View article »
    • Wed Apr 23rd 08:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodities and the Fed: Answering the Skeptics
      Surging Economies such as India and China are generating an unprecedented demand for commodities as workers get richer.
      Just picture, say, 300 million people dropping their bikes and picking up a motorcycle or small car. If they use 2-3 gallons gasoline/week ... you get the picture
      I have charted ratios between Crude, Intermediate & Finished Goods.
      These ratios are at extreme, pointing to an imminent correction in commodities.
      View article »
    • Sat Apr 19th 11:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bond Expert: Friday Outlook
      Higher US rates will also make the Dollar more attractive.

      I think that an imminent correction in commodities and the US Dollaris likely.

      I have charted Crude, Intermediate & Finished Goods ratios and they are at extreme levels associated with reversals.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»