Will Rahal

http://www.wrahal.blogspot.com
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114 Comments

    • Sat Apr 19th 11:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Positioning For Further Dollar Weakness
      I think a rally in the US Dollar and a cyclical drop in commodity prices are imminent.
      I have charted the extreme levels that some components of the PPi have reached.
      Specifically, I took a look at the Finished Goods to Intermediate Materials ratio and also the Intermediate to Crude Materials ratio.
      Both ratio are at historic extremes associated with reversals.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 15th 09:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Does the Mini-Bounce in Retail Sales Mean Anything?


      If you look at the y/y % change in Retail Sales deflated by CPI(Real RS) it is simply scary. It is deep into negative territory and deteriorating rapidly.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 11:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fed Easing: No Free Lunch for Dollar, Oil and Commodities
      We import 10 million barrels of oil a day. This means $1 Billion a day at $100/barrel.
      When the price of oil declines net imports will decline also recursively making the US Dollar stronger.



      View article »
    • Sat Apr 12th 09:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bond Expert: Friday Outlook
      A falling Dollar and high inflation do not help the financial sector.
      I have posted a chart of employment in the financial sector relative to natural resources.

      In inflationary periods this ratio declines as P/E contraction takes place.
      View article »
    • Sat Apr 12th 09:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Regional Bank Failures: The Next Shoe to Drop
      Employment in Financial will drop significantly more.
      I have posted a chart of employment in financials relative to natural resources. This ratio falls during inflationary periods as P/E contraction occurs(now).
      It rises when financial markets are prospering.
      assets-part-two.html
      View article »
    • Sat Apr 12th 09:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      6 Themes Affecting the Global Economy
      Employment in the financial sector will continue to decline.
      In an inflationary environment, P/E contract as the financial markets fall out of favor and the sectors associated with the production of mines and Natural Resources(NR) do well.
      View article »
    • Sat Apr 5th 09:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nonfarm Payroll Employment: The Movie
      The y/y change in Service employment ex Health & Education
      is about to fall from a cliff.
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 2nd 18:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ISM Manufacturing Index Rebounds
      The ISM for Services should be interesting.
      I claim that in the near future the preponderance of jobs in the service sector(84% of all employment) will decrease.

      The search for alternative fuels will also help a switch from services employment into manufacturing.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 10th 09:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Rotten Jobs Report from February
      The yr/yr % change in Employment in Services looks
      like a bouncing ball losing momentum and scheduled to hit the ground in a year or so.
      Services hold 84% of the jobs in the US.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 10th 08:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Recession Started?
      Employment in Services(84% all of jobs in the US) has been
      losing momentum. For the last 35 years, there seems to be an 8-9 year cycle schedule to bottom in 2009..
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 9th 10:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Payrolls: Even More Bearish Than the Headline
      It is not a good report!
      I charted the Employment of Services.
      It looks like a bouncing ball losing momentum and heading to a low in a year or so.
      Services employ 84% of the labor force an I believe it will start losing more jobs relative to Manufacturing.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 8th 11:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Payrolls Report Indicates Recession
      What is more worrisome is the fact that Services(84% of Employment)is decelerating rapidly.
      I have charted Employment in Services excluding
      the more steady Health & Education jobs, and it looks like a bouncing ball with an 8-9 year cycle, about to hit the ground.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 3rd 10:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Economic Report Summary: Stalled Growth, Eroded Consumer Confidence
      I think there is a change in consumption taking place.
      During economic recoveries DG Consumption as % (DG+ND) tends to increase as Wages increase.
      In the last recovery, despite Wages rising strongly, DG did not perform well.At the same time ND/Wages increased to a record high, leaving less income for discretionary spending.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 2nd 16:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stagflation in the 1970s vs. Today’s Economy
      Great material, Thomas!
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 2nd 14:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stagflation in the 1970s vs. Today’s Economy
      We currently emphasize "ex Food & Energy"

      The dangers of analyzing "ex a variable" can lead to wrong conclusions.

      ND-Goods are greatly affected by food & energy.

      I created an index of ND-Consumption/Wages and it shows that a greater proportion of Wages is going to ND goods and, therefore, less to Discretionary Spending.

      View article »
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