Will Rahal

http://www.wrahal.blogspot.com
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114 Comments

    • Sun Mar 2nd 14:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Consumer Spending: Up, Down or Flat?
      There is a change in Consumption.

      I created an index of ND-Consumption/Wages and it shows that
      a greater proportion of Wages is going to ND goods and, consequently, less to Discretionary Spending.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 24th 11:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Winning Trade is a Tough Trade
      We are in an inflationary environment that will lead the market P/E to drop to the low teens, before this Bear Market is over.

      I have posted the relationship between Inflation vs P/E.There is a typical 2/3 decline from the peak P/E( market bubble top)when the prices of commodities are surging.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 17th 11:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Forget the Obituaries - The U.S. Economy is Alive and Well
      There are many indicators pointing to more than a "moderate" slowdown.
      To make matters worse, inflation is re-accelerating. This combo is not good. The financial markets reflect this.
      I charted the S&P-500 performance vs. CPI and the correlation is clearly negative.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 17th 09:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Bears Take a Breather
      Great summary!
      Adding insult to injury, inflation is re-accelerating.
      Ususually this puts on additional pressure on the financial markets.
      View article »
    • Sat Feb 16th 11:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Long Bond is Falling - Why?
      Inflation is re-accelerating. This does not help.

      I have posted an interesting chart of CPI vs the performance of the
      S&P. It is clearly negatively correlated
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 11th 11:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      6 Reasons U.S. Stocks Will Outperform Foreign Stocks in 2008
      Even after a whopping 225 basis points cut by the Fed,
      pessimism prevails. Together with some technical improvement
      I expect the stock market to rally shortly.
      I have been bearish, but call for a bottom on Jan 22.
      and expect this pullback to be done in a day or two.
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 11th 10:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P 500 Still Looks Putrid
      I have been bearish for months but now think that there is an excellent chance for the market to rally amid all the pessimism. There are some technicals positives also.
      My 5-day momentum indicator will soon be in "buy mode"
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 11th 08:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Embrace the Golden Bull
      I have been a bear for months. I called for a bottom Jan 22(documented in my Jan 18 post) and expect this pullback to end soon.

      With the high pessimism that exists and other indicators pointing to a bounce, I think that the StocK Market will have a nice rally.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 10th 08:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dow 15,000 Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think
      I don't know about 15,000 . I have been a bear for a while, but I called for a ST bottom for Jan 22 on my site dated Jan 18, and believe the market is setting up for a nice rally.
      The Fed has cut a whopping 225 basis points!
      Technically Pessimism reigns and there are some positive breadth divergences .

      View article »
    • Mon Feb 4th 12:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Watch Out Economy: Stormy Weather Ahead
      The implications of the Service sector (82% of Labor Force) deteriorating is even more scary.
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 4th 12:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Payrolls Decline Means Lower Rates Likely
      Rates will sure collapse when the Service sector deteriorates even more rapidly than the manufacturing sector.
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 4th 12:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Payrolls: Negative 17,000 + Huge Downward Revisions for 2007
      Imagine the implications when the Service sector, which employs 82% of the work force, starts deteriorating more rapdily than the Manufacturing sector. I have posted on this theme.
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 4th 11:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Common Mistakes in Interpreting the Employment Report
      In a more macro approach, I have posted about a decline in employment in the Service sector which will be faster than that of the Manufacturing sector.
      Services employ 82% of all employess so the implications ar onerous.
      View article »
    • Sat Feb 2nd 07:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fiscal Stimulus Package Won't Avert the Recession
      I agree that Recession will not be prevented.
      DG/PCE has hit a new low, dropping below previous recessions.
      ND/DG keeps rising, absorbing Discretionary Income.
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 27th 10:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Rick Santelli Takes Down Jim Cramer
      Cramer may know every stock in the universe but he still favors "what works now" and seem to lack a good view of the macro picture. I clearly remember in 2005 when he was recommending housing stocks b/c the P/E 's were low and the earnings growth were high (low PEG).
      In his favor, the "what is working now" technique may result in big profits for a long enough time.

      One can be right enough in this business to make huge amounts of money too! The trick is, that when you are wrong, you have to cut losses quickly.
      View article »
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