Will Rahal

http://www.wrahal.blogspot.com
Total Rating:
0 / 0

114 Comments

    • Sat Jan 19th 09:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oversold U.S. Market Gets Even More Oversold
      Tuesday (1/22) will be an excellent entry point to play a ST bounce.

      Those who read my blog know that I have been bearsish.

      But now my indicators have turned ST bullish, and pessimism has increased dramatically.
      View article »
    • Fri Jan 18th 23:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mean Reversion: When's the Time to Buy Japan?
      Japan and the US should bounce shortly.

      I am expecting a rally. On Tuesday 1/22
      the Stock Market should be bought.
      Both my 5 and 10-day momentum indicators are in "buy mode" and have generated positive divergences at a time that the public has become more pessimistic.
      View article »
    • Fri Jan 18th 22:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P 500 50-Day High/Low Spread Hits 5-Year High
      Note that your 50-day Hi/Low spread tends to point to excess pessimism and therefore (relative) bottoms.
      I am betting on a short term bottom for Tuesday(1/22) as my indicators are in "buy mode' and providing positive divergence with respect to the S&P price action.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 16:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Latest Retail Sales Report Strengthens Case For Consumer-Led Recession
      Adjusting using today's CPI report, Real Retail Sales were flat for 2007!
      The tredns is also scary.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 14th 12:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Consensus Economist Estimates Don't Suggest a Recession
      A slowdond like 1995?
      I Don't think so.
      Retail Sales will be reported tomorrow.
      I deflated RS by the CPI and this Real RS is trending lower
      and is below the 1995 level.
      View article »
    • Sat Jan 12th 23:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AmEx Warning Means Trouble for Mastercard
      kunst
      Great Idea, I will work on it.
      View article »
    • Sat Jan 12th 11:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AmEx Warning Means Trouble for Mastercard
      I think that AmEx is reflecting a meaningful economic contraction.

      Investors are comparing the current situation with the "Mid-Cycle"
      slowdown of 1995.

      Real Retail Sales have trended lower and looks weaker than in 1995.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 7th 17:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      December Employment Report: Smallest Nonfarm Payroll Gain Since 2003
      Despite positve net-job creation, Real Wages follow the (Un)Employment Rate.

      The rise in the Unemployment rate is recessionary
      and the y/y % change in Real Wages is approaching zero.
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 6th 17:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will 2008 Be the Year of the Bear?
      This is the year of the Bear!
      I expect small stocks (Russell 2000)to drop to 1/3 of their High reached in mid 2007.
      The main reasons: recession and a P/E contraction.
      The RUT carries a P/E twice as that of S&P-500.
      View article »
    • Sun Dec 30th 12:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will 2008 Be a Better Year for the Economy?
      The key for a better economy is job growth.
      Non-Farm Payroll has to increase by at least 145K jobs to keep up with a modest Labor Force growth.
      Friday's report is expected to show NFP growth of about 70,000,
      and the UR to increase to 4.8%.
      This means that y/y change in the UR will increase by .3% points
      and this equates to a 6% rise in the UR.
      Since 1948, this 6% increase has corresponded to an economy three months into recession.

      View article »
    • Mon Dec 24th 14:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Consumer Spending Continues to Fuel the Economy
      Thanks, Gordon
      View article »
    • Sat Dec 22nd 14:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Michigan Confidence Report Not a Useful Barometer of Recession Risk
      Action speaks louder than words
      Non-Durable Consumption (associated with necessities like food and energy) has been increasing more rapidly than Durable Goods consumption(associated with discretionary spending).

      The consumer has a propensity to spend, but now may not have the ability to do so.
      I have posted charts showing the ratio of Non-Durable to Durable Goods Consumption and how this ratio behaves into mid-recession.
      The level now is compatible with recessionary periods in the past.
      View article »
    • Sat Dec 22nd 14:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bill Gross: U.S. Already in Recession
      I have to agree with Bill.

      I've graphed the ratio on Non-Durable Goods to Durable Goods Consumption and how this ratio behaves into Mid -Recessions in the past.The level of this ratio now is compatible with past recessions.
      View article »
    • Sat Dec 8th 16:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Labor Market Remains Strong
      I think that Employment remains weak.
      Both surveys show a deteriorating trend.

      The yr/yr % change of the two major sectors of Employment, Services(84%) and Goods-Producing(16%) are at, or below the levels of the start of the 2001 recession.
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 3rd 11:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Rate Cut: Is it Two and Done?
      Despite the Payroll numbers The Fed is NOT done lowering rates.
      I posted a chart showing Nominal GDP Growth vs. the Prime Rate and there seems to be plenty room for rates to drop
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»