gato

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    • Tue Oct 7th 12:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Is Everybody Selling as Buffett Is Loading Up?
      Nice pufff piece on Buffett, sure he's a good investor but now he's also a "media hog" going on every TV show to announce how he's investing. Playing the part of "awh shucks" good ol country boy. The posturing for the media was embarrasing to watch especially for a man of his stature.
      gato
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    • Thu Aug 28th 11:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Looming Financial Catastrophe: A Real Inconvenient Truth
      Kudos! A good outline of our catastrophic political/economic condition.....(We, who are about to die (economically)salute you!)

      Change, is the only constant, (we want others to change while we remain "constantly" perfect) we want to change (bad) government(s)....our wifes...our children... etc....(fill in the ****** blank)...
      Solution(s)
      1. The U.S.of A is bankrupt, (become honest, even though it hurts) and declare.....BANKRUPTCY... and clear (we're welshing!) like Argentina did, issue a new currency backed by an (1) ounce of silver payable on demand and get back to work.
      OR
      Solution 2.
      Declare "War", a first strike (atomic attack) on an enemy (pick any enemy, one with a large population and lot of oil.) with the clear understanding that it will be genocide..like we did in Japan, and force the rest of the world to Pay Tribute, just like ancient Rome, rule by force through the existing military bases we have located throughout the world. AND...proclaim it "Pax Americana"..(miss... accomplished!)
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    • Fri Aug 22nd 14:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What's Next for Brazil's Economy?
      Ahaaa!...Yawn!..Excuse me!,... I almost almost nodded off!..your article made me think of President Harry Trueman (USA) he was always looking for "A one handed economist, 'cause, the ones who advised him, were always telling him.."Such and such could happen to the economy,....BUT..then, on the other hand...this could happen"...I guess he figured, if he could find that "one handed guy" his decisions would be easier....Now!..where was I?... Oh!....yea!..Your take on the Brazilian economy...well, after checking your bio. ('an seeing that you're 23 years old....Hmmm!..it clicks!...you're still wet behind the ears)..so, I'll go light.
      I not an economist so take what I say with 2 grains of salt, (At the very least) you article was long, full of data essential to understanding where a country's economy is going....Here comes the ...BUT,.. the piece lacks an understanding for the social/cultural/ethics of a country, which in my opinion reduces it to a "dry" mathematical equation.
      For example you said in reference to the first comment on corruption:

      "Honestly, I also have to admit that it is a topic of which my knowledge is very limited. However, if I take your points at face value they would obviously constitute an important obstacle for whatever Brazil sets out to "become".

      That's a good honest response, but, why don't you know this?...data on crime in every country is widely available on the Internet..did you think that info. is not important?...If you would pull up the web sites of Brazilian news papers (Folio do Sao Paulo,..or..uol.com.br ) you would find that there is a (undeclared) Civil War raging in the big cities of brazil.....What?..Are you talking about?...Hmmm!..(Only this) I talking about the "narco-terrorist&... drug gangs who dominate the cities of Rio, Sao Paulo and most of the other cities. They often attack police stations, with heavy military weapons..grenades, machine guns etc. more people are get killed there, than in Iraq....of course, Iraq is a small country compared with Brazil ..(expecially population wise). The people (honest ones..Diogenes are you there?) who live in those cities have to live behind steel bars..they have to imprison themselves in their homes to protect themselves and families.as the streets run red with blood.

      Bottom line,...Claus?... If you don't know any of this (and most non-Brazilians don't, 'cause the gov. tries to hid it)..in my opinion, your
      assessment of the Brazilian economy is not complete, but, is excusable, because of your tender age. I guess my main point is: there's a lot more to an economy than the import and the export numbers...What say you?
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    • Fri Aug 22nd 12:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Three Long-Term Investments in Latin America
      To day BCH shows a div. of 11%....am I missing something?
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    • Fri Aug 22nd 11:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Homebuilders Try To Ride Tax Credit Wave [Housing Tracker]
      The $7,500 dollar gov. tax "credit" is only temporary..the so called "credit" is really a loan, to first time home buyers..It has to be paid back. So calling it "a tex credit"..is only another "marketing come on tag" for the uninformed.
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    • Thu Aug 21st 17:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Buy and Sit Tight Like Soros
      PBR is a semi public co., 53% brasilian gov. and 47% ADR's
      "O petróleo não é do presidente da República ou da Petrobras, ele é do povo brasileiro" (political spin)
      The senior partner calls the shots...this"soap opera" will have a long run.,stay tuned!

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    • Thu Aug 21st 16:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Four Brazilian Profit Plays
      Hmmm!..My last rant (Aug 19th.) kicked up some dust, got some notice, some thought I was harsh...that's a definite.. "maybe"..but... when a person (I assumed Ms.Jennifer Yousfi, who made those recommendations, is an stock analyst) she had a responsibility to provide... "some"... facts to support her recommendation. I consider my.. "harsh feed-back".. will have a positive effect, if she ever reads it. I didn't "cut her any slack"..'cause she's a lady, and because there's people's money/savings at risk...some "might" have noticed we're in a .. Ahem!.."Bear Market", where one has to think on "the return of money, 'an not on the return from money. That's why not to mention that the ADR's represented 43% of a semi-public co. with the other 53% owned by a socialistic gov. with a extreme dislike of "foreign speculators" (their spin) extremely important part of the background information...I still do...so no apology. I don't take prisoners, 'cause in my line of work mistakes can cost lives....Gees, I'm sorry!..won't cut it.

      So this (rant) is not about Brazil, it's more about investing in general, AND so called "investors" like me, thinking that there is "someone out there" with the "real info" ready to give it to me ...for free yet..Hmmm!.. that's not the way the investment world works...'an I have the scars to prove it..with a portfolio down $24K. ...(Ouch!..grrrr!)..so far this year. Usually brokers,...No!..scratc... that!..Often, when broker's like Merrill Lynch, Citi. LSH, GS..recommend a stock..what's really going on is "they want to unload that issue onto the small time (joe sixpack) investor. (See the latest headlines on MER, C, being sued for their fraudulent behaviour(s))...and they will give very convincing info. why we should buy..and we do...Hmmm!,..and guess what....****** fill in (your) blank!... Warren Buffet said:"if you're in the game five minutes and don't know who the "mark" is...guess what?..you're it....get it?

      Bottom line,..1.We have to become our own experts, with our own research to include:
      2. What is the trend?.. 'an trade with it...no ..Buts!
      3.What is our comfort/style long or short term..(long term for me is 20 days)
      4. Valuations..P/book,..P... flow (positive or negative..if you're comfortable shorting)
      4. TA. technical analysis will show movement 'an how to play it. The great thing about TA...is, that it gives instant info. of what's happening....NOW...not what... "should"..ha... (helps to isolate the ego)
      There's more, ..."stuff" but I've gone too far already..time to "shut up!
      gato

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    • Tue Aug 19th 14:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Four Brazilian Profit Plays
      File this under "Old wine in a new bottles"...This story was good 3 years ago. Your analysis is incomplete.
      1. For example you don't tell your readers that PBR is a semi-public co. the brazil gov owns 53% and the ADr's own 43%. Still they are finding oil but, it's not like buying a fully public co. Also there was a lot of "front running" (buying the shared before the oi l discovery was announced) Brazilian press had stories on this. That info. is of "major" importance to an investor before investion....'an "puff!...not a word, this is powder-puff advise, useless or worse...dangerous.

      2. Inflation in brazil is kicking up that's why they their bonds pay 13% to attract the carry trade. Imports are exceeding exports this year, unlike previous years when the reverse was true.

      3. Brazil is entering the "bubble stage" of economic expansion..so, credit card debt is way up, the gov. is financing housing for people who can not afford to buy...Cars are selling like hot cakes...(up 21% this year).nothing down etc....does that ring a bell?...Hallo? Any one home? We've been here before!....Duh!
      Bottom line?..when giving advise (especially the economic kind) there should be "more meat on the bone" (where is your research coming from..you have a responsibility) not just "back of the envelope" common knowledge that "was" available last year in many publications.
      Many (clueless (economically) Americans read your "stuff" and take as coming from the "mount" (face value) and put hard earned savings based on your recommendations.....gu... week buy ( or go to your public library..."fur Nutten!) a copy of Barron's to get you up to speed!
      gato

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    • Mon Jul 28th 13:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Top 5 Looming Financial Issues
      Tick!...tick.....tick!

      Economy..a ticking time bomb....tick.!...tick!
      "Derivatives massively leverage the debt in an economy, making it ever more difficult for the underlying real economy to service its debt obligations and curtailing real economic activity, which can cause a recession or even depression". Is the view of Marriner S. Eccles, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman from November, 1934 to February, 1948, too high a level of debt was one of the primary causes of the 1920s-30s Great Depression

      My concern is about about all the talk on derivatives, and watch the destruction of the dollar, the sub-prime loans etc, etc....The main types of derivatives are futures, forwards, options, and swaps. (OTC) derivatives are contracts that are traded (and privately negotiated) directly between two parties, without going through an exchange or other intermediary. Products such as swaps, forward rate agreements, and exotic options are almost always traded in this way. The OTC derivatives market is huge. According to the BIS (Bank for International Settlements), the total outstanding notional amount is USD 516 trillion (as of June 2007)

      According to the BIS the total derivative market in 2002 was $100 trillion dollars. Warren Buffet thought then that. that could be a problem because he had just acquired Gen Re Insurance company that had some derivatives and he wanted to sell them...Well, he couldn't find takers....He termed derivate as “financial weapons of mass destruction”. I think he was thinking that if the LTCH (Long Term Capital Management hedge fund )which had just gone " belly-up" with losses of $5 billion and nearly brought down the US financial system. So, he had to be thinking "what would happen if the $100 billion derivatives had such a problem". Fast forward to 2007 and the derivatives had changed to (according to BIS)...These amounts are hard (for me)to imagine...'cause we're talking “big bucks here” We not talking money in terms of main street every day shopping, but more in terms of petrol-dollars IOU's, etc., which fluctuates in value by the second. Never the less, to put it into context, so that a small time “investor” like me can "try" to get a handle on it, here are a few comparative monetary numbers to use "as economic land marks"....Take a peek!:

      USA, GDP (annual gross domestic product)....$15 trillion
      USA money supply................... trillion
      USA Federal Budget (2007)................... trillion
      USA Maximum "legal" debt..................... trillion
      World GDP (all nations 2007)................$... trillion
      Unfunded SSI (socials security) and Medicare.$60 trillion ****Uh...Oh, what's that?!
      Total world real estate value...............$7... trillion
      Total value of stocks and bonds..............$10... trillion
      Total value of world's derivatives(BIS 07)...$516 trillion
      Total war exp. Afghanistan $200 + Iraq $850...$1.05 trillion

      Getting the picture?...not pretty!

      Note:The BIS notes that the $516 trillion is “notional value” which really means the melt- down-value, or a complete wipe-out of the world derivate market, they also state that "only" $11 trillion was the nominal financial risk in 2007....Oh...geees!..n... I feel better!

      Some of us, think that the FED. (U. S. Fed. Reserve) is a US Government organization who's function is to protect the nations economy. The term "Federal Reserve"
      (I think) prefixed with U.S. leads us astray. In reality the Federal Reserve is a private, not public institution, representing the interests of the US banks through its 12 regional branches. Therefore, the nature of the Fed is that it is a banking system insider. The Fed's first and foremost defends the banking system and "only" secondarily represents broad economic interests as mandated by the US Congress. These two objectives are not necessarily always in harmony with each other, because the bankers can bring "heavy" pressure by lobbying and with reelection donations. For example, the most profitable cycle for the banks started during the 2001 recession as a result of the Fed’s super loose monetary policy eventually leading to today’s disaster in the housing market.
      Today, we are in the midst of "a worldwide financial system crisis". That is why, even more so than before, the greatest priority for the Fed is an immediate rescue of the banking sector. The most pressing need for the Fed now is to "buy more time," which is desperately needed by the banks in order to continue their de-levereging process. To date, this de-levereging process has been happening way too slowly and with huge losses for the banks. In April/May, many banks recapitalized their balance sheets by writing off bad loans and issuing long term noncumulative preferred stock (at 7.75% – 8.50%..but not available to "average" stockholders..(actuall... doing them a favor)..Hmmmm?) to bolster their cash positions and support their diminishing lending ability.

      My concern is that this entire unregulated market "only needs a small jolt" to set off a unstoppable global domino type collapse, similar to Bear Sterns fiasco, which almost sent us into the abyss. Bill Gross (US. bond guru) has said “what we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern day banking systematically, these (derivatives)are not just risk management tools, they are a new way to make money...outside, the normal Central Bank's liquidity rules. It's “a shadow banking system”...How?...becau... they are private contracts (promises to pay) between two (or more) institutions”.....AND,... this!.... A complex of leveraged lending, so hard to understand that the Fed. Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke required a "refresher course" from a hedge fund manager in mid August (2007) trying to understand them. In short, Warren Buffet, Bill Gross and Treasury Sec. Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke couldn't figure out what's going on in the derivative market or world markets.

      My take on this ('an, I'm not an economist...Thank heavens!) is: that the world economic system is out of control and the World Central Banks are looking at each other wondering "who's going to blink first". We, ....as in "us"...you and me...are on our own, we can't relay and wait for things to get better we have “self-protect” as best we know how, for our families. Ben Bernacke (who is the designated fall guy)has been handed "a hot potatoe" and now, plain a simple, doesn't know what to do. So, he's doing the only thing he can do, keep his fingers crossed, jaw-bone the public into thinking that he's in charge. But, there's no-way we can clear away $615 trillion of derivatives without a complete rearrangement of the world's finances. Even the $11 trillion is too big of a nut to crack. "If"....or I should say "when" the general public lose faith in "fiat" currencies (such as the US dollar, Euro, etc... which is happening) they...(and we) will panic and push gold, silver, and "hard" assets into the stratosphere. And, economic order will only be reestablished after we learn that those hard assets are "not" the answer. Can you imagine having a lot of gold/silver when no one else has any and trying to buy bread, milk etc. ....??.
      Solutions? The economic philosophy has to change, "paper pushers" who do not produce anything should not get special tax breaks like hedge fund managers who only pay 15% on trading income this includes investors like me. On shore "producers would have to be encouraged and off shore co. who now pay zipp in taxes such as GE would have to pay a minimum amount. Savings have to be encouraged instead of discouraged, real estate "house flipping" discouraged. Houses are places for people to live in not trading not speculating. Gas conservation by increasing the minimum mileage and "flex" vehicles,done NOW..not 20 years from now and be able to run on gas or ethanol. Finally the currency will have to be tied to something of value...silver/oil /etc as a means to try and keep the governmental kleptomaniacs from causing more inflation. Keep the faith!
      gato.



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