user8240

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    • Mon Oct 20th 12:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Not Your Grandfather's Great Depression
      The GD was caused by Hoover raising taxes, Protectionism that killed world trade, and the Federal Reserve shrinking the money supply. The New Deal didn't cure the GD because it was too small to be effective in reviving the economy. But, don't let the facts interfere with the truth.
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    • Fri Sep 26th 11:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Hedge Fund of America, LP
      Bernanke said banks want to abandon fair value accounting standards and instead use their own estimates of hold-to-maturity prices for these assets, but "warned such estimates would be unreliable.”

      But Hold-to-maturity is the price Bernanke said we should pay to takeover these assets. So, the plan is to deliberately over pay for the Banks mistakes.

      Worse, the Bailout won't work. The Banks are not lending the cash they already have, why would they lend (even if they have more cash) if they are afraid they won't get re-paid? The Bailout plan is attacking the wrong end of the problem. Effective demand should be stimulated not the supply of cash. Money supply is the quantity of money times the velocity of money. Without effective demand, velocity will continue to fall.
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    • Thu Sep 25th 12:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Curing the Credit Crisis: A Better Alternative Plan
      The constitution says:
      "To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures". Nothing about Gold.

      The problem is the Paulson plan gives more cash to banks that aren't lending what they have because they are afraid they won't get paid back. We should be creating effective demand for loans instead of transferring paper around.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 16th 00:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The 'Sage of the Dow' is Also Confused
      "not only would the worst of the bear market already have been over, within a very short time a new bull market would be born."

      Based on what?
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 12:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stagflation or Deflation?
      Philman, is your proof that Paulson "is intentionally lying" and Bernanke an "academic fool" your investment losses?

      The GSE losses were already socialized through implicit guarantees. So far, no gains to privatize (unfortunately).

      BTW, I wonder how many folks complaining about the GSE takeover enjoyed lower cost/down payment mortgages to buy homes through the GSEs? Then, no complaints!
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 11:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stagflation or Deflation?
      "in the hope that the complexity of the economy will confuse the majority of people."
      Mr. Conrad demeans his own writings by confusing intentions with consequences. Does any rational person believe that Paulson et al are deliberately confusing the public? They are dealing with a tough economic situation created through fiscal incompetence starting with the Clinton administration that accelerated under Bush. Given the fact that we were virtually already on the hook for 6 trillion dollars of GSE bonds, their takeover 1) reassured current and future bondholders that the U.S. implied guarantee would be honored and 2) punished the stockholders and executives who were culprits or complicit in the GSE "keep the party going" crowd.

      "And, the process is continuing."
      Why do critics complain about the consequences of GSE and Bear Stearns takeovers but never offer a viable alternative that should have been taken?

      "Gold, agricultural land and food products are good bets"
      Great, another lets hide in the cellar with gold coins or become farmers as the answer.

      Democracies respond to crises. When things get bad enough we will figure out the solutions or learn Chinese.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 29th 11:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      25 ETFs That Actually Are Making Money
      I think baller miss understood Jim Wiandt's point re ETF fees. By comparison with mutual fund fees, all the leading ETFs are cheaper. His point is that the fees of leading ETFs were higher than under performing ETFs. Well, you get what you pay for (sometimes).
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 27th 12:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Depression?
      How did politics get into this discussion? There's lots of blame to go around for the state of our economy. Whether or not the market crashes, the economy is being pushed along by easy money polices that weren't employed by Hoover and the Fed to avoid the depression. Of course, we may get hyper inflation instead but at least Ron Paul will be able to say "I told you so". I prefer to think about the short term what to do....for example, if McCain wins, the likelihood of a renewed Cold War with Russia would be wonderful for defense stocks.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 10:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investment Strategy: Be Prepared to Take Advantage of Tomorrow's Sunshine
      The article's timing for recovery of the market is predicated on the presidential cycle of stimulus in the last half of each term. However, this time there is need for major reform and stimulus in 2009. If the stock market discounts say 6 months ahead...the last quarter of this year may be the time the sun comes out.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 8th 12:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Begets Urban Renewal, Suburban Flight [Housing Tracker]
      The Kotkin article reflects short term thinking. Jobs moved outside the cities as population shifted out. When population shifts back downtown because of energy price, the jobs will follow the work force back to the cities. In addition, retirees are not affected by the employment situation; for example, take a look at sowntown Asheville NC walkability score on walkscore.com...a 98% rating. Take that suburbia!
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 1st 13:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Critique of Dollar Policy
      "Buffet revealed that the average tax rate for employees in his office is 32.9%, while he paid 17.7% of his income as taxes." When did paying a higher percentage of income in taxes become fair? It was mis-labelled as "the progressive income tax rate" to con us into cheerfully paying more as we worked harder to create more goods and services for others. Paying taxes based on income is the problem. Adopting the Fair Tax which would tax consumption instead of discouraging investment and hard work is the answer.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 1st 11:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Study: Central Florida Home Prices May Be Normalizing [Housing Tracker]
      "the real value equals 100 x the monthly rent!" So, if an apartment rents for 3000 a month, the real value is $300,000? Such a rent would not cover taxes at 2 percent of assessed value plus mortgage expense.
      Try 20 times annual rent as the top of the value range (or 240 times monthly), which yields $720,000. Typically, price to rent ratios range from 15 to 22 depending on market and market conditions.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 29th 12:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It
      Corn ethanol is a political answer for farm income not energy polilcy.
      Cellulose ethanol will come but in the interim I am betting on Cyclone Power Technologies (CYPW) which is developing (just got a contract from Raytheon) for a new engine that will burn gas, diesel,bio-diesel, a lot more effeciently than current ic engines; named the best invention of 2008 by Popular Science magazine.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 10:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Foreclosure Stimulus to Boost Tech's Four Horsemen
      "Annual core retail sales are up 10.2% over the last three months."

      Hello, the economic stimulus package,which mailed out about $50
      billion in checks in April and May, provided the lift to income and consumer spending
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 15th 10:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Portfolio Planning and the Lost Decade
      Talk about touchy! I re-read all the comments posted and don't find anyone "vitriolic".... citing Buffett that "WIDE diversification is protection against ignorance" is right on point. However, it still doesn't explain how you allocated funds within the ETF portfolios. Backtest data would have been nice to try to validate your (again) subjective selections. Buffett's stock selection is subjective but obviously very good; asset allocation and diversification is fine but it always comes down to how good are your selections. Knowing how your portfolios would have performed in the past would provide some confidence in your recommendations. My own model portfolio which is not much different than your p40-p70 portfolios has been flat since last October. While better than the U.S. market in that time, not a world beater...I suspect your portfolios, in this time frame, would have produced similar results. BTW, I made a typo in my prior comment....meant VTI and VEU as a way to achieve total (ignorant?) diversification.
      View article »
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